Covid 19 Omicron: 6232 new cases as experts say peak likely passed

There are 6232 new cases of Covid-19 in the community today.

The latest Ministry of Health figures come as experts say our latest wave of Covid-19 infections was smaller than it could've been, and has now likely passed its peak due to hybrid immunity.

The latest numbers mean the seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7405, down from 8703 last Saturday and taking the number of people in the community with Covid-19 to 54,192.

Just over 240 of those infected had recently travelled overseas.

Numbers of those who died are no longer reported over the weekend under the ministry's new reporting system.

As of yesterday, 1479 deaths had been confirmed as attributable to Covid-19, either as the underlying cause of death or as a contributing factor.

The average increase in deaths each day attributable to Covid-19, over the past seven days to yesterday, was 18, the ministry said.

There are 769 people in hospital with the virus, compared to 764 a week ago. Of those in hospital today, 18 are in high dependency or intensive care units.

David Welch, Jemma Geoghegan and Michael Plank wrote today about the steadily falling seven-day rolling average of new daily cases.

They're down from a peak of around 10,000 on July 15 to just under 7800 on Thursday, they wrote in The Conversation, a not-for-profit online publishing platform.

"The strength of hybrid immunity induced by high vaccination rates and the large and relatively recent BA.2 wave in Aotearoa likely means this BA.5 wave is smaller than it would have been otherwise," the experts wrote.

Yet to be peer-reviewed new evidence from Qatar and Denmark suggested those who'd previously been infected with the Omicron variant had relatively strong immunity against BA.5.

"Qatar and Denmark both have highly vaccinated populations and this is evidence of the strength of hybrid immunity."

Michael Plank is a professor in applied mathematics. Photo / Supplied

Welch and Geoghegan are both senior university lecturers, with Welch doing Covid-19 modelling and genomic analysis, and Geoghegan an associate scientist at ESR. Plank is a professor in applied mathematics at the University of Canterbury.

The true number of infections was likely to be significantly higher - not everyone tests when unwell - but there was no reason to think testing has dropped off significantly in the past two weeks, or even in the past few months, they wrote.

"The amount of virus being detected in wastewater has also decreased in the past week … this means the fall in cases is likely to be real."

There were 12,270 rapid antigen test results reported in the last 24 hours, and 3467 PCR tests done, the ministry said.

The latest Covid-19 wave had also passed with hospitalisations at the lower end of what was originally expected.

Earlier this week, outgoing director general of health Ashley Bloomfield - whose last day in the job was yesterday - said Covid hospitalisation rates continued to stay steady or increase.

While there was a chance they could still rise to over 1000, the revised peak was 850, which we came close to last weekend, he said.

Of those in hospital with the virus today, the highest number are in Auckland metro and Canterbury/West Coast hospitals.

In Auckland, 75 are in Waitematā and 140 in Auckland.

The number of people hospitalised with Covid-19 in other regions is: Northland: 15; Bay of Plenty: 34; Lakes: 15; Hawke's Bay: 37; MidCentral: 48; Whanganui: 14; Taranaki: 18; Tairawhiti: 3; Wairarapa: 6; Capital & Coast/Hutt: 29; Nelson Marlborough: 15; Canterbury/West Coast: 113; South Canterbury: 16 and Southern: 43.

Latest numbers weren't available for Counties Manukau and Waikato today. They had 51 and 97 hospitalisations with Covid-19 respectively yesterday.

Director general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield pictured during his last Covid-19 press conference this week. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Hospitalisations typically lag behind cases by a week or two, Welch, Geoghegan and Plank wrote.

"Consistent with this pattern, the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 has recently shown signs of levelling off. It will probably start to fall in the coming week."

Most importantly, cases have been falling in all age groups - including over-70s, which was particularly good news.

"The increase in case rates in older age groups had been a key driver of the steep rise in hospitalisations and deaths in this wave."

The average age of people in hospital today with Covid-19 is 64, with 63 unvaccinated or not eligible, six partially vaccinated, 62 double vaccinated and 332 boosted.

Nationally, 95.2 per cent of people aged 12 and over have had at least two Covid-19 vaccinations and 73.4 per cent of people aged 18 and over have had a booster.

Just under 30 per cent of children aged 5 to 11 have had two vaccinations.

Young families may see an increase in infections, with school kids now back in the classroom after the winter break, the experts wrote.

"But this is unlikely to be enough to reverse the falling trend, and hopefully won't affect older age groups to the same extent."

The decline in new daily cases could occur relatively slowly, as it had following the first Omicron wave in March - eventually plateauing between 5000 and 8000 for several months.

But there were reasons to be optimistic that hospitalisations and deaths could drop lower than they did between the BA.2 and BA.5 waves, Welch, Geoghegan and Plank wrote.

"Although immunity isn't perfect and wanes over time, those who haven't yet been infected with Omicron are the easiest targets for the virus."

They were getting harder to find as the number of Kiwis not yet infected dwindled. As of today there have been 1,599,202 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand.

"The rollout of fourth doses for eligible people more than six months after their last dose, coupled with building evidence for the strength of hybrid immunity, suggest New Zealand's population is increasingly well protected against currently circulating variants."