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Home / New Zealand

Covid 19: NZ analysis reveals vax's life-saving difference

Jamie Morton
By Jamie Morton
Multimedia Journalist·NZ Herald·
29 Sep, 2022 11:40 PM4 mins to read

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A new analysis confirms vaccination is the single best way to slash the odds of dying with Covid-19 - with those who'd received one or no doses facing a risk two thirds higher. Photo / Michael Craig

A new analysis confirms vaccination is the single best way to slash the odds of dying with Covid-19 - with those who'd received one or no doses facing a risk two thirds higher. Photo / Michael Craig

A new mortality analysis confirms vaccination is the single best way to slash the odds of dying from Covid-19.

But the Ministry of Health's just-released report sadly also showed what modellers and epidemiologists have long warned about: Covid-19's disproportionate danger to Māori, Pacific and poorer people.

Public Health Agency deputy director-general Dr Andrew Old said that, thanks to low levels of infection early in the pandemic and one of the world's highest vaccination rates, New Zealand had seen comparatively fewer Covid-19 deaths.

Modellers estimate as many as two-thirds of the population have been exposed to the virus this year, with most people experiencing a mild-to-moderate illness they could manage at home.

"But sadly, despite that, more than 2000 people have died from Covid-19, either as an underlying or contributing cause, and we remain committed to ensuring those most at risk of death from Covid-19 are prioritised in our response," Old said.

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That total – of which 1289 deaths occurred with Covid-19 being officially coded as the underlying cause – happened to be around six times higher than last year's road toll.

Covering nearly 1800 Covid-attributed deaths recorded over the year to August 26, the report showed a higher risk among people who were older, unvaccinated, were Māori or Pasifika, lived in poorer areas, or had pre-existing health conditions.

While age was the single biggest determinant of risk of death – the bulk of Covid-19 mortalities to date have been recorded among Kiwis over 80 – vaccination status also mattered.

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The analysis showed a 62 per cent reduction of risk of death among those who'd received two or more doses – and there was evidence, which future studies would explore further, that boosting lowered that danger even more.

But it also found how the burden of Covid-19 had fallen unevenly in New Zealand.

While the risks of death were much lower for all groups under-60 than for older age groups, the inequity for Māori and Pacific people was more pronounced among under-60s, with the risk of death 3.7 and 2.9 times higher respectively.

Of the 78 people under 60 who died from Covid-19, 35 were European or "other", 24 were Māori, 13 were Pacific People, and six were Asian people.

Similarly, the report found the most deprived 20 per cent of Kiwis faced three times the risk the least deprived 20 per cent did, with 429 virus-attributed deaths among the former group and 153 among the latter.

And for people with underlying conditions, the risk of death was about 6.3 higher: of that same 78-strong cohort of Kiwis younger than 60, 72 had pre-existing conditions.

Professor Michael Plank, of Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa, said the analysis essentially confirmed what we already knew about the benefits of vaccination.

"It gives you a big reduction in the risk of dying from Covid-19, or getting seriously ill – and the evidence has been clear on that since the vaccine first came out," he said.

"It's still far and away the best tool we have to reduce the risk."

Going forward, Plank said the focus for vulnerable people would need to shift from not how many doses they'd received, but how recently they were last boosted.

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But he also pointed to the higher death rates observed among Māori and Pacific people.

Early modelling by Plank and colleagues showed that, even after controlling for age and pre-existing conditions, Māori were two and a half times more likely to need hospital care than non-Māori.

The risk for Pacific people was even greater, at three times higher.

"This could have been mitigated against if the vaccine roll-out had been prioritised or targeted toward Māori more strongly at the start," Plank said.

"I think that's been generally accepted."

According to the latest analysis, vaccination rates alone accounted for around a quarter of the excess risk for Māori and Pacific peoples.

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However, even controlling for these factors, Māori and Pacific people were still at a significantly higher danger.

"Unfortunately, this does reflect broader long-standing health inequities for Māori and Pacific [people], with poorer health access and outcomes across many measures," Old said.

"It is also similar to Covid-19 experience in many countries, including Australia, the United States and United Kingdom, where already vulnerable communities have been disproportionately impacted by Covid-19."

The Government was taking steps to better protect vulnerable groups, through tailored outreach services, pop-up clinics in places like marae and places of worship, and whānau-centred vaccination efforts.

The Government also made antiviral medicines – used in the early stages of infection - accessible to those over 65, Māori and Pacific people older than 50, or anyone else who met Pharmac's requirements.

The latest findings come as a team of researchers have begun a deeper study exploring what impact multiple doses of the Pfizer vaccine made against Omicron.

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