Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa project leader Dion O'Neale said New Zealand's Covid death rate is about the international standard for an Omicron wave.
He said the numbers look to be comparable to other countries: "We're not looking outstanding in either direction for death rates.
"One thing that's a big risk for fatalities is if you start to get spread that starts to make its way through aged care and residential care facilities, that's a super high-risk situation and that's going to give you these spikes, or clumps of deaths coming together."
Overall, New Zealand has had 258 Covid-related deaths since the start of the pandemic.
O'Neale is hopeful New Zealand has seen the peak in hospitalisations.
But he warns the descent will be "bumpy" with increases if the virus gets into vulnerable populations like rest homes.
O'Neale said for this wave, the country appears to have avoided a health system "collapse" some people were worried about.
"From the data I've seen anyway it looks like we are scraping through and managed to maybe, hopefully, get past the worst of this peak without exceeding that capacity."
Hospitals have gone to unusual lengths to continue operating while many of their own staff are off sick - including people doing other jobs to manage demand.
Canterbury nurses who volunteer for extra shifts in aged care are getting $350 a night to cover ongoing Covid-related staff shortages, while Auckland nurses and midwives were offered a $500 bonus for working extra overnight shifts, as staffing shortages climbed to 25 per cent during the city's Omicron peak.
At Auckland's Middlemore Hospital staff such as doctors and medical technicians stepped in to help on the wards and in the emergency department during the Omicron peak, while in Wellington non-clinical staff with clinical backgrounds stepped in to help fill staffing shortages.
Only about half the planned care was going ahead at Wellington region hospitals last week, while Auckland hospitals put all but the most urgent care on hold during its Omicron peak.
