Auckland motorway. Photo / File
Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield will join Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern for the post-Cabinet press conference at 4pm today when it will be revealed if and when New Zealand will move to alert level 3.
Yesterday there were nine new cases, the second time the daily tally was in single-digits since before the lockdown.
The Ministry of Health will reveal whether there's still a falling number of new Covid-19 cases as the Government decides when lockdown will be lifted.
Politicians, commentators, economic and health experts alike have had their say on whether or not New Zealand should move to alert level 3.
Ahead of today's announcement, here are some of the best arguments for and against coming out of lockdown, and the potential impact the decision will have on the New Zealand public.
Why New Zealand should come of out lockdown
Winston Peters - 'No value in saving people if greater social damage caused'
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters says there is "no value" in trying to save people who have coronavirus if it means greater social damage is caused.
We need to save our economy as fast as we can before further damage is caused, Peters told Newstalk ZB's The Weekend Collective.
The decision on whether New Zealand will move down to alert level 3 will be announced at 4pm today.
"The secret is that we keep a sense of balance," Peters said.
"In other words it would be of no value if we save a lot of Covid people in our approach - and yet during it we've got all sorts of things like depression, suicide, breakdowns and a whole lot of other social things having far greater social damage.
"In the end the only thing that's going to save lives, isn't just medical expertise - but an economy that's capable of providing the utilities to face the crisis."
He also hit back at those who say alert level 3 isn't much different to level 4.
Recently National's Judith Collins said level 3 is just like level 4 but with KFC.
Peters said level 3 has changed since the alert level system was introduced 30 days ago, arguing we know more now from watching the pandemic unfold both domestically and internationally.
He said level 3 means 500,000 more people can go back to work.
"It's sad people have to get political in times like this," he said.
"If you can't help then get out of the way of people who are trying to help."
Up to 30,000 surgeries called off during lockdown
Hospitals deferred thousands of operations as they prepared for a possible wave of Covid-19 cases - and to minimise contact under alert level 4.
The most urgent surgeries were still being done under the lockdown but elective surgery had largely been put off.
Private Surgical Hospitals Association president Richard Whitney said, in many cases, the surgery was still badly needed, with some people living in pain or with deteriorating health.
Some cancer operations were among those being delayed, along with joint replacements or back, brain or gynaecological surgeries, he said.
Exact numbers were not yet available but 30,000 was a good estimate based on the normal workload of the private and public sectors, he said.
Around the start of the lockdown, almost all surgery was on hold to allow anaesthetists to train to work in intensive care units if they became overwhelmed by Covid-19 cases.
Cancer Society medical director Dr Chris Jackson says cancer operations have since increased but the extra safety protocols needed mean not as many can be done.
It was likely there had also been delays in diagnosis, partly because people had been avoiding general practices and emergency departments, he said.
While that was a worry, it had to be weighed against the fact that people with cancer were more susceptible to the virus, he said.
"It's complex because ... if you get to the situation ... where you have huge, terrible numbers of Covid in the community then that has a major negative impact on people with cancer," he said.
One of the key level 3 changes should be to ease current hospital restrictions on visitors - particularly to those who are dying.
"Being close to loved ones towards the end of life or during a critical illness is so important on a human level. And, that has been one of the hardest things of this lockdown," Jackson said.
Mike Hosking: We're on top of Covid-19 coronavirus, so let's get on with it
There are some scenarios to think about ahead of this afternoon's big reveal.
Firstly, Grant Robertson on Friday at the update bent over backwards to walk back the mistake the Prime Minister had made on Thursday in outlining level three.
She explained it in a way that clearly large swathes of New Zealanders thought we were automatically heading for it, as if it actually started the moment she outlined it.
So on Friday Robertson read out a list of countries that not only hadn't unlocked their people, they had in fact locked them down longer.
Trouble with that, was those counties aren't us. Britain was one of his examples. If you compare Britain with us and even begin to think they're remotely similar, there is no hope for you. Once again the messaging has been messy.
We should, of course, be going to level 3 this week. To my mind it's a foregone conclusion. Every day fewer and fewer people have the virus. More get over it than get it - we are going backwards in a good way.
But never underestimate those who are besotted with this as a medical experiment. And never under estimate the politicians that see the mirage of elimination as a career-defining moment.
Both groups have a large say in today's announcement. If anything health wise trips us up it will be contact tracing. We have not been good at it. We haven't got to people fast enough - the same way the police never quite knocked on the doors of the self isolators they way they said they would. The same as the border was closed but no one quite got quarantined until really it was too late.
Also medicos will argue having a bunch of people in supermarket car parks swabbing shoppers randomly isn't all that comprehensive either. So their argument will be, if you're looking for a picture perfect landscape on which to make a level four/level three call, we won't have it.
Which is not, of course, a reason not to do the sensible thing. But don't forget, this is less about sense than it is ideology, obsession and politics.
Also don't forget this is a Government that is hopelessly indecisive. The fact we got locked down in the first place was really the work of some behind-the-scenes heavyweights who have never got the credit they deserve. This government's weak point is pressure. They don't lead, they react, and they react most to pressure.
So don't be surprised if we get another week at four with a promise of two weeks at three. Like supermarkets got to open Sunday, but not Friday. Why be decisive if you don't have to? Or you don't now how?
Today though, in theory, is the day to do the right thing by us all.
We have paid a spectacular price economically. We achieved many days ago what we set out to do: flatten the curve.
We have been successful, so let's get on with it.
Why New Zealand should remain in lockdown
Lockdown should be extended two weeks says man tracking virus spread
The man in charge of modelling the spread of Covid-19 in New Zealand says the lockdown should be extended by at least two weeks.
University of Auckland professor Shaun Hendy said an extension could result in New Zealand eliminating the virus completely.
Cabinet was reviewing information collated by Hendy and his team who tracked how Covid-19 spread and how different actions could change the timeline.
Hendy, a professor at the University of Auckland, led a team who tracked how Covid-19 spread and how different actions could change the timeline.
On average, the reproductive number of the virus was at 0.5 in New Zealand. That means, on average, half of those who are infected with the virus spread Covid-19 to one other person.
It was "almost certain" to increase if alert level 3 was introduced.
However, the evidence was clear to Hendy – the lockdown was working to eliminate the virus in New Zealand and it should be extended.
"If we stay at this strong level of lockdown we can actually eliminate the virus," he told Newstalk ZB.
"Going to level 3 will be less sure about what that reproductive number will change to, it's almost certain to go up. That's going to prolong the time that we'll have to stay at level 3.
"I think we're close enough to being able to eliminate the virus at level 4 that it [will] be worth staying at level 4 for a little bit longer."
A public announcement would be made at 4pm as to whether the nation would enter level 3. For live updates throughout the day click here.
The modelling data was completed on Friday and the results were with Cabinet, Hendy said.
The data was only part of the evidence ministers would review today, with opinions from health professionals with infectious disease experiences also included.
Hendy was of the opinion once the nation started recording zero new Covid-19 cases then it would be a good time to drop to level 3.
However, it would be vital for Kiwis not to "let our hair down" and break social distancing recommendations.
If the virus started spreading quickly in alert level 3, then the likelihood of heading into another lockdown would be high, Hendy said.
"We're on track to contain or eliminate the virus here," he told RNZ's Morning Report.
"The disease is still spreading, even though the number is below one the disease is still spreading.
• Covid19.govt.nz: The Government's official Covid-19 advisory website
"You have to wait sufficiently long for the virus to actually disappear and that's the difficult thing, making a decision on how long you're prepared to wait."
Those who had the virus needed to stay at home and distance themselves from others to ensure they were keeping those around them safe.
Kiwis warned relaxing and socialising could lead to new outbreaks
The Prime Minister is warning New Zealanders now is not the time to relax and undo all the good work towards stopping the spread of Covid-19 as the country waits with bated breath to learn whether it will come out of lockdown later this week.
Jacinda Ardern's comments come as a fire chief has slammed the carloads of people on the road this weekend, and a North Shore beach was filled with people strolling along the shore.
Manurewa Fire Station officer Roy Harris said he was appalled at the attitude of some people to the country's only chance to eradicate Covid-19 from New Zealand and keep their fellow citizens safe.
Harris said people appeared to have wrongly taken the alert level 3 guidelines as a sign that they could relax and "go for it".
"Motorway traffic has been much increased the last few days and, as I drove to work at my fire station this Saturday afternoon, there were many vehicles on the road, hardly any with just one person in them. A good number had three or four. This number of people in vehicles going out at 5pm on a Saturday is not about essential work, more likely about going somewhere to socialise and potentially spread the virus," he wrote in a letter to the Herald.
The fire chief hoped police were giving out fewer warnings to these people and there were more prosecutions for outright breaches of Covid-19 protocols.
Dog walkers, runners and families flocked to Takapuna Beach on Sunday morning with more than 100 people spread along the shoreline.
A member of the public said the busy beach was filled with what appeared to be nearby residents. No one was in the water, but children played at the water's edge and people stopped and spoke to each other at a distance.
The walkway - which is part of the North Shore Coastal Walkway - was busy in parts and could make staying a safe 2 metres away from people outside a bubble difficult.
Between 8pm Friday and 8pm Saturday there had been 371 lockdown breaches and about 3400 police prevention patrols.
Since lockdown began just under four weeks ago, there have been 321 prosecutions, 76 youth referrals, and about 2700 warnings issued.
A police media spokesperson said while it was too early to give any examples of behaviour at the weekend the message was still clear and that was: stay home and save lives.
Under alert level 4 people should only be on the roads if they were accessing essential services or delivering essential services.
"Police are continuing to have a visible presence in communities and on the roads right across the country and the message is unchanged, people need to stay home."
Ardern said Google location tracking data showed a huge drop in traffic in cities as well as far fewer visits to places like beaches and parks.
"I know it hasn't been easy but it has been working."
The latest data is taken from Saturday April 11 and compares data from that Saturday with the average Saturday between January 3 and February 6 this year.
There has been a 75 per cent drop in people visiting parks and beaches and a 59 per cent drop to workplaces, according to the data.
Ardern warned a move to alert level 3 would not be a return to pre-Covid life and was more of a "recovery room". She said New Zealand did not want to undo all the hard work.
"What eventually changes at alert level 3 is that more of the economy is able to come back on but our social lives sadly will not."
Cabinet will announce at 4pm today whether the country will move into alert level 3 on Thursday at the end of the four-week lockdown.
Police say the raiders hit two locations in the early hours of this morning.