Fewer babies are likely to be born in the coming months in New Zealand because of economic uncertainty. Experts say the trend could foreshadow growing problems for the country's swelling ageing population. Emma Russell reports.
Fertility clinics are preparing for a 20 per cent drop in demand after the Covid-19 pandemic, sparking fears some women may miss out on having children altogether.
Andrew Murray, Fertility Associates medical director, said there were concerns the economic impact of Covid-19 could mean some women miss the biological window to have babies.
One Wellington woman told the Herald IVF (in vitro fertilisation) was the only way she and her partner could have a baby - but as they were facing financial uncertainty because of the pandemic, their dreams of starting a family would have to be put on hold.
Murray said fertility seemed to move in sync with our economic cycle, so when the economy was suffering, people tended to have fewer babies.
He said after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008 there was certainly a dip in demand for about a year after.
"Our assumption is the hangover from Covid is going to be far worse than GFC and as a consequence demand will drop."
Massey University sociologist Professor Paul Spoonley echoed Murray's comments, saying New Zealand's birth rate was likely to drop over the next nine months for two reasons.
"One is people are anxious about health of the country and community and do you want to bring a child into a situation where there are challenges and issues?
"The second is because we are heading into a period of economic uncertainty, people don't feel confident enough to start having a family. They may have lost their job and there is a whole lot of uncertainty."
He said it was generally estimated the cost of bringing up a child in New Zealand to the age of 21 was about $285,000.
That took into account food, education, clothing, child care and other expenses, Spoonley said.
The impact of a decline in birth rates meant New Zealand's growing ageing population would accelerate.
"We are going to reach a point quite soon where we have more people aged 65 and over than those aged 0 to 15."
Spoonley said the issue was that a lot of our country's polices dealt with a New Zealand that existed 45 years ago and so our policy framework really needed to change.
"The cost of superannuation and healthcare will become a growing issue."
He said another problem likely to get worse was the tendency for our population to move north.
"In the last 30 years, a large chunk of people have moved to the 'golden triangle' - Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga - and as a result schools in other parts of the country have been forced to close. And places like Auckland have had to build more schools."
The prediction that birth rates will drop could also be evident in the demand for contraception, which has sky-rocketed in recent months.
Jackie Edmonds, chief executive of Family Planning, said she was seeing a huge increase in demand from women seeking contraception.
She said it was a double effect of the Mirena contraceptive becoming fully funded in November last year and the impact of Covid-19.
"We are getting hundreds of requests every day. Our demand is huge, far more than the resource we have and lots of people are waiting for contraception.
"Wait times for appointments were up to two months."
The United Nations' sexual and reproductive health agency (UNFPA) is forecasting that, globally, 47 million women could lose access to contraception, leading to 7 million unintended pregnancies in the coming months.
However, most of its data points to women in low- and middle-income countries who may not be able to access modern contraceptives.
As New Zealand is a high-income country, Edmonds suggests we might see the opposite.
"It's clear there will be a surge of unplanned pregnancies worldwide, but New Zealand could be quite different because, with these financial pressures, people will likely be more concerned and more careful about becoming pregnant.
"However, on the other side we could see an increase. It is really hard to say because this was such an unusual time for people.
"It wouldn't be surprising if we also saw a spike in abortion in the coming months.
"I think people will be delaying having children given the financial situation ... couples will be grappling with the uncertainty of work."
Yvette McKinley always knew she wanted children one day.
The 32-year-old never expected cost would come in the way of starting a family of her own.
Six and half years ago, she met her now-fiance Daniel Macauley on Tinder.
"At first I thought he was a bit cocky but we dated for a while and eventually we fell in love.
"I was in too deep before children came up. I was 26 when I met him and kids wasn't on my radar. You can't help who you fall in love with."
Macauley, 39, had had a vasectomy.
After taking a four-month trip away together in 2017, the couple decided they desperately wanted a baby of their own, so Macauley opted to get a vasectomy reversal.
Unfortunately, the treatment was unsuccessful, so IVF became their only option.
Each round of IVF costs close to $15,000 as the couple didn't qualify for public funding until after three years of trying. Even then, there was at least a 12-month wait.
McKinley said at the time they were fortunate enough to be able to afford going privately.
After the first round, the Wellington couple were faced with a negative pregnancy test and the second time - $30,000 deep - they lost their baby after eight weeks.
"Losing a baby naturally is hard enough but with IVF the price tag also sits at the back of your mind and it's tough, especially when all your friends are having babies."
Now, because of Covid-19, the Wellington couple are faced with further hurdles.
"Daniel has been on the wage subsidy during lockdown and with the uncertainty around what is going to happen in the next three to six months we are having to rethink whether we will be able to afford another round of IVF."
McKinley said the hardest part was knowing she was at peak childbearing age but had to wait until her fertility started to decline before they could get Government funding.
"It feels like we are being penalised for a decision that my partner made to have a vasectomy but we don't make that judgment in other areas of the public health system.
"For example, we don't wait a certain period of time or not treat people who have cancer just because they chose to be a smoker earlier in their life."
She wants the Government to reconsider its funding criteria for IFV so it is in line with other areas of criteria public health care.
• Covid19.govt.nz: The Government's official Covid-19 advisory website
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