Clark secure, but for how long?

Helen Clark

The final media diary issued by the 2002 Government has only one tongue-in-cheek entry for all ministers this morning: "lie in". But in truth, the cellphones will be ringing for most Labour MPs today.

They have arranged teleconferences, and some will even meet in person today, as the factions begin positioning for what could be a tense third-term Government.

Helen Clark told the Herald on Sunday a week ago she would not talk about her biggest mistake in the campaign: "There's plenty of people like you and the opposition paid to point out mistakes." But there will be plenty of critics inside her caucus.

Already, some are tracing Labour's decline back to a falling out between Clark and finance minister Michael Cullen over whether the Budget should offer more: she said yes, he said no. In the end, they held an unseemly lolly scramble during the campaign, sparking public cynicism about election bribes.

Until three months ago, Labour looked a shoo-in for a historic third term. Instead, they could get there only by the skin of their teeth.

Labour has been hurt this election, but there will be no immediate blood-letting. Clark is keen to retain the premiership - and she has insisted that she has no plans to hand over leadership mid-term.

As one MP said ruefully, the real winner of the election could be the party that lost. With the economy expected to hit trouble, and potential instability, Government could be a poisoned chalice.

After a close election, the Labour Party organisation will demand new faces in Cabinet to avoid any public perception that the third-term Government is old and stale. Jim Sutton and Marian Hobbs could be under threat within a year. Ministers outside Cabinet like Dover Samuels, Judith Tizard and Harry Duynhoven could be replaced even sooner.

With some of those senior politicians put out to pasture, space could eventually become available for the return to Cabinet of Lianne Dalziel, and the promotion of talented MPs like Steve Chadwick, Damien O'Connor, David Cunliffe, David Parker or newcomer Shane Jones. Other portfolios, like health and foreign affairs, will be shuffled around.

But it will only be rearranging seats on the Titanic if the ageing Labour ministry is seen to be bearing down on the iceberg of the 2008 election. In that case, there will be no option but to replace the captain, either by coup or by managed succession.

The frontrunner to take over is thought to be Phil Goff, though his power-base on the right has been dented with the retirement of Mark Peck and Janet Mackey. Goff has the same ability as Clark to woo middle New Zealand.

Steve Maharey, once thought to be unelectable, could be in with a chance as the darling of Labour's liberal left, though his run-in with former WINZ boss Christine Rankin and the "smarmy" label applied by Tamihere still rankle.

Trevor Mallard could be an alternative with the backing of unionists, though he is seen as an overly combative bovver boy: good as an opposition leader, but hardly a statesman. And Annette King is seen a wildcard option, able to draw some support from the right and some from the unionists.

A polite and civilised leadership change could open the way for Clark to depart Parliament in good grace to pursue another career, perhaps with the United Nations.

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's second and final term expires on December 31 next year.

Could the nations of the world be ready for their first Western leader since Austria's Kurt Waldheim retired in 1981? New Zealand is a champion of the small states, a nation that has sided with the multi-lateralism of the little guys against the unilateralism of the big powers.

Clark's involvement in more than two decades of bitterly partisan domestic politics would count against her, but that did not stop her Labour predecessor Mike Moore reaching the top of the World Trade Organisation, or former deputy Prime Minister Don McKinnon leading the Commonwealth.

A more realistic immediate ambition is thought to be a role in an international disarmament organisation, or using her experience as health minister at the World Health Organisation.

In the heat of the campaign's final days, the Herald on Sunday asked Helen Clark if she ever stopped to think ahead to the days when she would have left the prime minister's job, to when she would have a bit more time of her own.

"Never," she retorted. "I'm very caught up in what I'm doing, I like what I'm doing."

It's time now to start thinking.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY