Former leader Simon Bridges has revealed he is considering seeking a return to the role - saying National under Collins "haven't done a good enough job".
Opinion by Claire Trevett
Claire Trevett is the New Zealand Herald’s Political Editor, based at Parliament in Wellington.
One of the more entertaining moments during National's day of dramas was MP Ian McKelvie's observation the party was starting to resemble the Australian cricket team - a string of captains falling to scandals and stuff-ups.
It will elect its next captain on Tuesday at 3pm and hasto get it right.
The new captain will be decided on Tuesday (or brokered before then). They will have two years to get the party back up again.
The hustle has begun. As of Friday afternoon, only one person was confirmed as a contender: Simon Bridges.
MPs are in a pickle – torn between Luxon's "new broom" but inexperience versus Bridges' experience but baggage.
MPs are judging Luxon on the back of a nod from John Key and the lack of a track record to defend.
Illustration. / Guy Body
But don't write off Bridges' chances just yet. When Bridges is at his best, he is very good.
He is good at picking the vulnerabilities of the Government and hammering at them. And that is a crucial skill as the gloss starts coming off Labour. Bridges is also a canny campaigner when it comes to these things.
It will not be an easy decision for Luxon.
There were few advantages for him in running for the leadership before this week's debacles, and there is even less advantage in it now.
Even if Luxon succeeded in hauling the polling back up to respectable levels, if he cannot win in 2023 there is no guarantee the next caucus will give him another term.
It was for that reason that Luxon intended to wait in the first place - to let Bridges take the fall in 2023, but hope he managed to salvage the polling enough to place National well for a decent tilt in 2026.
Now some other MPs who consider themselves future prospects will be licking their lips hoping Luxon's turn ends after 2023 and they get their turn.
For that reason Luxon could well still revert to continuing with plan A: take the finance portfolio, get more experience and go for it later.
The ultimate goal for any leader is to be Prime Minister – not leader of the opposition.
The reason he would put that at risk by going earlier than planned was because in the immediate aftermath of Collins' demise and her botched attempt to sully Bridges by dragging up five-year old comments to his colleague Jacqui Dean, concern set in Bridges was now too tarnished.
The initial shock is wearing off and that hit to Bridges was not as bad as it first seemed – Bridges himself also handled it well.
There are also big question marks hanging over Luxon. It is not yet known what the public verdict on him is. MPs are also unsure whether Luxon is ready yet, just one year into his life as an MP.
It is still unclear exactly what he stands for and where he would want to take National.
Until now Luxon has used his lack of experience to fend off questions about his leadership ambitions saying he was just a rookie and had a lot to learn about how the party worked, and how Parliament worked.
He would have to convince people that none of that mattered any more.
Leaders don't have the luxury of being able to pull the rookie card, or offer a "no comment" on tricky questions. That is why other relatively new MPs who have become leader have faltered.
Some have pointed to Luxon's history in business giving him many of the skills he will need as leader. That is true, in some ways. It also makes him a credible voice on economic issues, and that will be an asset over the next two years.
Luxon is comfortable in front of the cameras. But he has never faced the heat of prolonged media scrums, with questions being fired at him on all topics.
He has not had to contend with a political firestorm, or deal to rogue, misbehaving or leaking MPs (yes, that is a very different matter to being a chief executive dealing with staff).
In a company, he does not have to be likeable or go up in televised debates against a rival.
Then again neither Jacinda Ardern or Key or any leader before them truly been tested in the many challenges that leaders face - although most had a longer run-up to it than Luxon.
He could well be able to pull it off. But nobody knows that for sure – including Luxon.
They do know that Bridges can handle that pressure. But they do not know whether the public will give Bridges a second chance.
It is also far from certain some in caucus would give him a second chance. He could continue to be undermined by his old foes if he was leader, although that would lessen if Bridges did get the polling up.
But Luxon has no such old grievances. He would need a lot of support and he hasn't been there long enough to have a pre-prepared kitchen Cabinet – the core group of MPs he knows he can rely on for sound advice.
In a way, that is in an advantage because it makes it easier to form his team without old loyalties and grudges getting in the way.
Whichever of them wins, both Bridges and Luxon would be foolish not to give the other one the finance role.
It would ensure both ended up with skin in the game, and a vested interest in making it a success.
The deputy position would be less certain, and probably for a liberal such as Erica Stanford or Nicola Willis.
There are other names circling as potential leadership contenders - notably Chris Bishop and to a lesser degree, Nicola Willis.
Those rumblings are about noise and tactics (or self-delusion). They know (or should know) they do not have the numbers to take it out now.
It is a bluff tactic to try to get whoever ends up the leader to cater for them in the new line-up. It is also about positioning – to show intent for when the job comes up next.
If Experiment Luxon happens and does not work out, that could well be 2023.
As for Judith Collins, the chief concern about her now is that she will stay on and undermine whoever is the new leader. That is far less likely to happen under a Luxon reign than a Bridges reign.
But some have noted the delicious irony of this week's events, in which Collins herself got rolled while trying to get rid of Bridges.
After years of undermining other leaders, Collins got into such a habit of it that she ended up undermining herself.
