Claire Trevett: Is Bill English a one-hit wonder?

Finance Minister Bill English. Photo / NZME.

Poor old Bill English's delight in his first-born surplus was short-lived. For the moment it was announced the beggars started lining up with caps in hand.

This sparked a scene reminiscent of the Money Or The Bag in Parliament. Various MPs put forward ideas of things the Government could pay for now it was in surplus. The rest then called out "say no" or "say yes", depending on the idea.

Even Prime Minister John Key joined the queue, asking if the surplus meant he could have more money for cycleways. English responded that the Prime Minister was prone to exaggerating the benefits of his projects and asking for more money than he expected to get. "And because that is what he usually does, I usually say no."

It had been a roller-coaster ride for English and he was not going to fritter away those hard-earned numbers. He had promised it since 2011. Alas, in the Budget in May, the Eeyore that is Treasury forecast a deficit. As it turned out, that was a false negative.

Back in May, English spent some time packing away the bunting and balloons and softening the public up to expect a deficit. He and Key had argued that a few hundred million dollars either side of that line were of little significance - the surplus they had banged on about did not matter.

The delight of National's ministers yesterday proved it did matter, even if only for reasons of morale and rubbing it in Labour's face, rather than actual fiscal reasons. Key admitted he had even high-fived English. English had to endure a great deal of mockery in May. There was little wonder that yesterday he revelled in pointing out it was Labour's Andrew Little with egg on his face now. Back in May, Little put so much trust in Treasury's forecast that he stood up at a pre-Budget speech and thundered that National's promise of a surplus was "one of the biggest political deceptions in a lifetime".

On top of the signing of the Trans Pacific Partnership, these were heady, heady days for National. It quite went to Steven Joyce's head. Asked about different language versions of the TPP, Joyce started speaking in tongues. "When I say 'bonjour' to you now, I mean hello. Hola would be Spanish." It was all Greek to those listening, as was Labour's position on the TPP he spoke of.

On that matter, as many suspected, Labour's absolutely, definitely non-negotiable bottom lines have turned out to be not so much lines as vast hinterlands of grey. The lines were perforated and tore away easily under pressure. As things stand, Labour's position appears to be one of supporting the TPP while pretending it does not support it. Like a child hiding from the bogeyman under the bedcovers, it also apparently plans to simply ignore the bits it doesn't like.

Labour's confused position did at least provide a refreshing change from the Government's seven-year-long excuse that the former Labour Government was responsible for whatever derring-do the current one faced. Suddenly, the former Labour Government was the gold standard because it had supported the TPP and been instrumental in getting the US into the negotiations.

Confirmation of the surplus was the last thing Labour needed on top of that. But as Robertson pointed out, English did not just promise one surplus. He promised years of them, rolling into years of plenty in which there would be more income tax cuts, debt would be paid down and one day contributions to the super fund might even start again.

On the issue of future surpluses, English came over all coy. Asked three times about future surpluses he mumbled about low inflation and growth. He mumbled about everything except future surpluses.

English's big concern is that the surplus will be his one-hit wonder. English has one, maybe two more Budgets up his sleeve, and follow-through is important. After the roller-coaster ride his first surplus promise caused him, he was not about to jump into making such rash promises again.