Claire Trevett: Do the polls deliver a whisper of hope for National?

OPINION

National's tax cuts gambit might not have had the pay-off the party had hoped for in the polls, but it has at least had a pay-off and just when the struggling party desperately needed it.

The 1 News Colmar Brunton poll on Monday night showed National had inched up by two points to 33 per cent from the week before.

It was a hardly a leap and nobody will be reaching for the champagne, but they may well be reaching for a straw of hope.

It was at least movement in the right direction and critically timed.

Combined with a similar lift in support in the Newshub Reid Research poll on Sunday night, it sends a message to National voters that the party is not necessarily in free-fall.

Combine National's support with the lift in Act's support in both polls - and drops from giddying heights for Labour - and there is a whisper of hope for the supporters.

That whisper may be enough to halt any exodus of support and to get supporters to actually bother voting.

It may also help any former National supporters who are now sitting in the "undecided" camps make up their mind.

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern has been driving home the attacks over the "holes" in National's fiscal plan, and was last night pushing the "stability" lines.

Those attacks have blunted the impact of the tax cuts, but have at least not created a new exodus of votes.

The rise of Act will not exactly please Collins because it is likely at the expense of National.

She has already raised her eyebrow in Act's direction, saying leader David Seymour's job is to take votes from NZ First and to win Epsom – not to take votes from National.

But beggars can't be choosers and between them, National and Act have 41 per cent support.

That is still well short of the Labour – Green combined result of 54 per cent.

But the gap between the two sides has now narrowed from 18 points in July to 13 points.

It is still a big gap and there is not much time, but it is at least something Collins can capitalise on in the campaign.

In that respect, the better news for National is that the polls raise uncertainty about whether Labour will be able to form a government on its own.

The less likely that looks, the easier it is for National – and NZ First – to ramp up the fear factor of what a Labour government dependent on the Greens would mean.

Collins started doing that almost immediately, tweeting "a vote for Labour is a vote for the Greens".

It showed what a bit of momentum in a campaign can have.

The past week has been very much one fought in National's traditional voter base, as both parties laid out their policy offerings to farmers.

Collins had shown a full gamut of emotion - from getting teary while talking about farmers' mental health, to having a jab at the "namby-pamby, give-them-all-a-hug stuff" about gangs.

Collins' has had a new hop in her step ever since many commentators judged her the 'winner' of last week's first leaders' debate. Her job now is to turn that into a skip and a jump as well.