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Home / New Zealand

Claire Trevett: A shift to the Covid-19 Red setting? Not on the PM's nelly

Claire Trevett
By Claire Trevett
Political Editor·NZ Herald·
6 Jul, 2022 05:26 AM5 mins to read

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PM Jacinda Ardern addresses media from Sydney
Claire Trevett
Opinion by Claire Trevett
Claire Trevett is the New Zealand Herald’s Political Editor, based at Parliament in Wellington.
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Nobody likes the bearer of bad news and so there were gritted teeth when New Zealand's Covid-19 experts started warning of a second wave – and predicting conditions would be right for a return to the red setting in the near future.

The Government in particular does not like the bearers of bad news, especially on the eve of school holidays.

As cases nudged up to the 10,000 mark again Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was duly asked whether the Government was considering a move to red, and answered in the negative: not soon, if ever.

Ardern then questioned whether the very rules she put in place to provide the extra protection at red were effective anyway - saying it was questionable whether the gathering limits would make much difference to the spread of cases.

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That means there are now also question marks about why the red level still exists at all, given those indoor gathering limits and seated-and-separated rules in hospitality venues are the primary difference between red and orange.

The reason their effectiveness is being questioned is because thus far it is older people who are behind the surge in cases (and most likely to be hospitalised) – and older people are considered unlikely to be going out clubbing and pubbing. Distancing rules at places you don't go to are not much use.

So both Ardern and Covid-19 Response Minister Ayesha Verrall pointed to mask use and vaccines as the answers. Verrall raised the prospect of tweaks to orange setting instead – perhaps taking it to a burnt orange hue.

It might be a bit baffling to some that the mantra seems to be ABR: Anything but Red.

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But it would be a bit of psychological shock to go back to red - and that includes for Ardern.

The last thing the Government will want to do is slap the country back into red just as school holidays are about to start – it would infuriate businesses and there is also hope being out of the classrooms will help slow the spread which was ripping through schools.

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Nor would it be a great look in the middle of the PM's globe-trotting exercise, pitching the Great Re-Opening of New Zealand and assuring the word we were open for business. Open for business provided you are seated and separated doesn't have the same ring.

She has already ripped the band-aid off – removing border restrictions, and vaccine mandates in all but the health sector.

Would it stick if she tried to plaster it back on again?

Since she waved the white flag to Omicron and the rapidly diminishing tolerance of a highly vaccinated population, the Government – and Ardern in particular – have been determinedly trying to get on with other things.

When the traffic lights were set up, the trigger point for red was a combination of the load on hospitals and case numbers rising above 10,000.

We stayed in red until numbers started dropping below 10,000. Now they are up again and predicted to rise, and while hospitalisations for Covid are still relatively stable, the flu and other winter ailments have made the overall strain much harder than it was in the first peak of Omicron.

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All Ardern had to offer on that was that she acknowledged the strain on health and hospital workers and thanked them for it.

But a couple of weeks ago, Chris Hipkins noted on The Nation that science was not the only factor in whether measures were effective. Public buy-in was also required. Rules nobody follows are useless as the proverbial udders on a bull.

It is obvious Ardern has recognised public buy-in for restrictions will be hard to harness again. She will not want to put that to the test, in case she fails.

Feelings in New Zealand range from those who worry we are not doing enough and want stricter mask rules, and those who have had Covid-19, did not suffer much and no longer fear it.

By and large, New Zealanders have now got used to doing just that: getting on with it by dint of having little choice in the matter.

Red has been kept in place, presumably in case a new variant that wreaks more havoc than the alphabet of Omicron's variations have so far done.

Should that happen, the Government will be relying on people's mindsets changing and making them more willing to follow harder restrictions again.

In the meantime, Ardern will be hoping people take heed of the call for diligent mask use at orange.

For that, people may need to be convinced it will be enough to prevent a move to red.

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