Christmas weather forecast: Rain possible for western areas as high pressure breaks down

MetService is warning Kiwis not to dust off the outdoor furniture for Christmas Day just yet as high pressure breaking down could bring downpours to some parts of Aotearoa.

Meteorologist Lewis Ferris said while there was a lot of “wiggle room” with the big day being a week away, western areas were more likely to get rain and those on the eastern side of both islands will likely be the driest.

Ferris said there was potential for showers for Auckland and Tauranga on Christmas Day, but only a few changes in the predicted weather could flip all that.

“One of the models that I can look at data for Christmas Day looks like there’d be some showers for most of the day. Another model for the same time frame, is looking to be a lot drier for both places. So it’s far from set in stone at this point.

“In the days leading up to Christmas, we have high pressure around our shores. But what we’re seeing as we get closer towards Christmas is perhaps that high pressure breaking down. That would allow some rain to come across New Zealand most likely out of the Tasman Sea.

“That would tend to mean or tend to increase the risk of rain along western parts of both the North and the South Island. So if we’re lucky that high pressure might just be able to hold on a little bit longer.”

He said this would generally mean there would be finer weather around the country.

“What I’ve kind of been saying today is to not rush out and clean your outdoor furniture just yet. It might still be a chance that you’re having to get your whānau all around the dining room table and squeezing in.”

Further South he said places like Christchurch and Queenstown had a higher chance of getting drier weather.

“Nelson is like a typical summer hotspot, but of those models that I can see for Christmas Day actually had the rain coming in quite a lot from the north/northwest, so that would tend to actually mean rain into Nelson. Whereas they’re typically pretty sheltered from rain.

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Ferris said at this point the weather could go either way, and even areas that have rain forecast could end up with sunshine.

As it stands, MetService has predicted showers for both Tauranga and Auckland on Christmas Day, with a high of 25C

Christchurch is in for a partly cloudy scorching 28C, and Queenstown 24C with showers and light winds.