The University of Otago’s Professor Robert Patman said what appears to be an over-reaction from China to a routine flight could be a sign of something else “irritating the Chinese leadership”.
He pointed to underlying tensions following the joint statement by the New Zealand and Australian defence ministers in March, which called behaviour by China in the South China Sea unsafe and unprofessional.
Patman said the criticism of China, alongside the absence of any criticism about the United States breaking international law in its attacks on Iran, would not have sat well with Beijing.
He said that while in the past, Beijing would see New Zealand as more balanced in its foreign policy compared with Australia – whose relationship with the US is “too close” for China’s comfort – that perception of New Zealand may be changing.
Patman said the very stern rebuke from China didn’t come out of nowhere.
“The response this time may have been much more intense because they may have believed that previously when China, when New Zealand was perceived to be pursuing a more independent foreign policy, they were less concerned.
“But they may be of the view that New Zealand is increasingly tightening its co-operation with the likes of Australia and perhaps the Trump Administration, and that would make China much more uncomfortable than previously,” he said.
Meanwhile, a spokesperson from the Embassy of China in New Zealand said in a statement that the activities of the New Zealand military aircraft had posed “a threat to China’s sovereignty and security”.
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters’ office has been approached for comment.
A statement from his office said it had nothing to add to NZDF’s response on the matter.
Defence Minister Chris Penk’s office also said it had no further comment beyond NZDF’s statement.
Professor David Capie, the director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University, said China’s reaction is unsurprising, as it has expressed unhappiness about these flights in the past.
“But these are flights that take place over international waters and in international airspace and are perfectly lawful,” he said.
However, he added that the language used by Beijing this time is stronger – using a word like “harassment”.
Capie said reports by China’s state media have pointed to the fact that the flights are taking off from Japan’s Kadema Air Base, and that Japan had welcomed New Zealand’s continuing role in enforcing UN sanctions on North Korea.
He said he wonders if tense China-Japan relations at the moment is a complicating factor in China’s response to New Zealand.
“Japan-China relations right now are really tense, probably the worst they’ve been in decades.
“I think that that the Japan context is sort of giving this a kind of an extra sharpness ... I mean they’ve always disliked these flights, but I think right now there’s the Japan dimension has given it an extra sort of sharpness,” he said.
- RNZ
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