KEY POINTS:
Why live in Auckland or Wellington when you can live in Sydney or Melbourne and have a similar lifestyle but a much fatter wallet?
Migration researchers and the National Party agree that this is an increasingly important question after the latest Statistics NZ figures, which confirm the trend
of the past few years: more New Zealanders are leaving and fewer are coming back.
Alarm bells should be ringing, says National's immigration spokesman, Lockwood Smith.
"We have to realise that we're losing New Zealand-educated people, and that's not a good thing. And that trend is climbing rapidly in terms of those going to Australia."
The number of New Zealanders abroad who moved home in the year to April was 14,000 fewer than the number who moved to Australia in the same period. New Zealand has a higher proportion of its population (about one million people) living overseas than any other developed nation.
Waikato University demography professor Ian Pool said migration trends fluctuate, "but my worry is it's getting cumulatively stronger and stronger, and we're not placing enough emphasis on retaining our best, which could have major implications for us in the long term".
The main factors for those moving overseas are career, business and travel opportunities that New Zealand cannot offer, says Ross McConnell, head of the Kiwi Expat Association.
New Zealand is disadvantaged because of its small size and remote location "and there's not much that we can do about those factors. Our population will always be smaller relative to other economies, so there will always be more opportunities elsewhere.
"When people come back, it's factors like family, lifestyle and security bringing them home rather than tax issues keeping them away. When you're talking about earning £60,000 or $80,000, taxation just doesn't come into it."
If Kiwis weigh up career opportunities and income versus lifestyle and the environment, why not have the best of both worlds?
"The quality of living is unquestionably better in New Zealand than elsewhere," says National leader John Key, "but our main danger is that when they return, they return to Australia because it's similar enough after a long time abroad, and a lot of New Zealanders see that flight across the Tasman as just a domestic flight."
Paul Callister, a researcher at Victoria University's Policy Studies Centre, agrees Australia is a rosy prospect for those returning.
"Why not live in Brisbane, and be in a position where you make more money, yet be just as accessible to New Zealand?"
He said New Zealand's biggest advantage was its quality of life, and that Australia was drying up.
"While we can't beat others economically, we can compete with quality of life, but even that's being challenged at the moment - safe communities, good schools and healthcare. But we have water."
Former Prime Minister Mike Moore in a Herald opinion piece last week said: "Australia's per capita income is a third higher ... Tax is lower at every income level until you reach the top tier. Wages are rising in Australia, after tax, at twice the rate of New Zealand."
Advisers keep suggesting that he move abroad because of the New Zealand tax regime.
"So long as you don't stay more than six months in New Zealand, and base yourself in London, Switzerland or Australia, you are taxed only on income earned in those countries."
Immigration Minister David Cunliffe says New Zealanders have always explored overseas, but that did not mean the Government was happy about the exodus.
Policies such as the website newzealandnow.info and wiping interest from student loans for those in the country are aimed at luring expatriates back.
"Our research shows about half that go away are pretty determined they're going to come back. A quarter aren't going to, and another quarter aren't too sure, and it's that quarter the website is designed to reach," Mr Cunliffe said.
"More people come to New Zealand than leave it. We had 11,000 permanent long-term migrants in the past year, 60 per cent of them skilled. Is there a brain drain? No, there is a positive brain exchange."
But we could be doing better, according to Dr Callister.
"The brain exchange only works if those coming in go into the same jobs at the same level of productivity, and they have to work hard to make sure they don't just end up driving taxis."
Professor Pool and Mr Key point to lifting New Zealand's economic game to retain those thinking about leaving.
"It's partly about income, it's partly about the opportunity to grow a business that puts the skills they learned overseas to work," Mr Key said.
New Zealand doesn't have to languish at 20th in the OECD for gross national income per capita, just behind Spain and ahead of Korea, the Czech Republic and Portugal.
"We can point to small economies - Ireland, Singapore, Finland - that have outperformed an economy like Australia's.
"But we need to reconstruct business rules to reflect what we have in New Zealand, which is a country of small businesses, not a country of large multinationals."
Mr Cunliffe says the Government is aiming to resize both carrots - lifting productivity while maintaining New Zealand's social and environmental advantages.
"Australia has a wonderful set of advantages, including an economy that is running hot, and they have great beaches - why shouldn't New Zealanders like living there?
"But for all it's advantages, a lot of New Zealanders say they enjoy it but it's not quite like home. My hope is that we build a country that is the envy of the rest of the world, and it's a no-brainer for Kiwis to want to stay here."
The Kiwi Expat Association (Kea) this week won the Supreme Award at the Vero Excellence in Business Support Awards.
With 22,000 members in 174 countries, Kea aims to make use of the knowledge and skills of expatriates for the benefit of New Zealand.
Mr McConnell said: "It comes down to the opportunity to make New Zealand the most globally connected nation on Earth.
"In today's global economy, we need to be finding more ways to turn this national characteristic to our competitive advantage.
"New Zealand businesses need to compete and succeed on the world stage and who better to help than our own people who are doing just that."
