Labour is hanging on to Rotorua by one of the narrowest margins in the election, after incumbent Steve Chadwick suffered major losses to National Party newcomer Gil Stehbens.
Election night results show Mrs Chadwick with a lead of just 532 votes over Mr Stehbens' total of 10,933.
In 2002, Mrs
Chadwick won by a majority of 7744. She gained 52 per cent of the vote, compared with National candidate Malcolm Short's 24 per cent.
Mrs Chadwick said yesterday she had known it would be tough to keep her seat for a third term, but was still surprised by the slim majority. "We were hoping that I'd hold about 2000."
She was cautious about declaring herself the winner.
"Until the special votes are in, we're not celebrating, really."
Dr Patrick Bennett of Waikato University's political science and policy department, had tipped Rotorua voters to return her to office, given her large majority last time.
But signs that her popularity was waning were apparent in a straw poll of 140 Rotorua business leaders conducted last week.
The poll results, published in Rotorua's Daily Post, showed Mr Stehbens in the lead with 46 per cent and Mrs Chadwick with just 16 per cent.
Mrs Chadwick attributed her drop in popularity to a change in the mood in the country, rather than just her electorate. She paid tribute to the Maori Party for the 414 party votes they received in Rotorua.
"They've been organised and enjoyed the dream."
She said National leader Don Brash's Orewa speech had hurt Rotorua's Maori community and the votes for the Maori Party were no surprise.
Mrs Chadwick's plans for the next few days included meeting Rotorua retailers and the district council to discuss a private member's bill she has drafted to allow Easter trading in the city.
"I'm not sitting back waiting for the special votes to come in. We've got work to do."
Mr Stehbens, a dentist who moved to Rotorua only four months ago, said it was unlikely special votes would make him the winner.
But he was heartened by the progress National had made in the electorate.
