The vote to legalise cannabis for personal use in 2020 would pass according to a new poll but the results would be closer than previously thought.
A survey of 1161 Kiwis found 52 per cent would vote in favour of legalising cannabis, with 37 per cent against and 11 per cent with no opinion.
On Tuesday, the Government unveiled a number of decisions about the cannabis referendum in 2020 but the final draft law is yet to be decided.
Legal use would be limited to people aged over 20, and advertising cannabis products would be banned and taxed.
Meanwhile, there would be limits on how much home-grown product you could grow and smoking would be restricted to licensed premises and private property.
Licensed medicinal cannabis company Helius Therapeutics commissioned Horizon Research to undertake the survey, with the poll results released today.
Asked, "At this time, do you think you will vote for or against legalising cannabis for personal use in New Zealand?", 52 per cent of those surveyed said yes.
Six months earlier, in October, a separate poll was released which revealed 60 per cent of people would support the legalisation of cannabis for private use.
Executive Director of Helius Therapeutics Paul Manning said he was not surprised by the results following a recent shift in cannabis commentary.
He said the polls would continue to fluctuate, however, the two different polls show a majority of Kiwis support the legalising of cannabis for personal use.
"We're now seeing some concerted scaremongering by conservative groups and others about cannabis being legalised for personal use, complete with at least one questionable poll suggesting hardly anyone wanted it," he said.
"There may have been a lot of political noise in recent days, but that statistical fact hasn't changed in six months."
"Now eighteen months from the referendum we've got a comprehensive survey that shows those who support personal use are 15 per cent ahead of those who don't, while still plenty of Kiwis have no opinion."
The majority of National supporters, 60 per cent, who took part in the survey said they would vote no to legalising cannabis.
Meanwhile, the majority of ACT, Green, Labour and NZ First supporters who took part in the survey would vote in favour of changing the law.
Elsewhere, all age groups up to people aged 55 years and over would also vote in favour of legalising cannabis for personal use.
The results stemmed from a nationwide survey of 1161 adults aged over 18 at the 2013 Census and was conducted before the Government's latest referendum announcement.
Horizon Research carried out the survey independently, with respondents part of their nationwide research panels.
The results came with a 95 per cent confidence level and the maximum margin of error is 2.9 per cent.
Referendum vote for legalisation of cannabis for personal use
• 52 per cent say yes
• 37 per cent say no
• 11 per cent have no opinion
Most supporters of most parties now in Parliament would vote yes
• ACT: 53 per cent yes/ 28 per cent no
• Green: 83 per cent / 13 per cent
• Labour: 63 per cent / 23 per cent
• National: 32 per cent / 60 per cent
• NZ First: 53 per cent / 40 per cent
Clear majority in all age groups up to 55 years would vote yes
• 18–24 years: 68 per cent agree
• 25–34 years: 68 per cent agree
• 33–44 years: 55 per cent agree
• 45–54 years: 53 per cent agree
• 55–64 years: 38 per cent agree
• 65–74 years: 30 per cent agree
• 75 years or over: 25 per cent agree