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Home / New Zealand

Can of cola a bargain at just $3.6 billion

By Damien Grant
Herald on Sunday·
13 Sep, 2014 05:00 PM3 mins to read

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Despite costing $3.6 billion, the can of coke I purchased in Harare some years back tasted no different to the Auckland $2 variety. Still, it was a bargain as the price the following day jumped by a hundred million Zimbabwe dollars. The de facto currency at the time was a petrol coupon; so at least everyone could get around.

Hyperinflation has never been known in New Zealand, but from the 70s through to the early 90s inflation was a permanent feature of life until Dr Brash strangled it from our economy. Could inflation be set for a comeback?

This election has degenerated into a mire created by Nicky Hager, Cameron Slater and friends but after the election we will have a Government. On current polling it will be a Winston Peters-backed Government.

Unlike Whaledump's identity, this matters. One of the few things Peters has been consistent on, other than his tailor, is his hostility towards the Reserve Bank's single focus on targeting inflation. He believes the Bank should also reduce the exchange rate to help exporters and has twice introduced a private members bill for that.

The last failed 61/59 and had the support of Labour and the Greens.

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Winston's fashion sense is much sharper than his appreciation of economics.

A central bank can control the inflation rate or the exchange rate, but not both. To oversimplify; if we drop our interest rate, cash will flee the country, causing the dollar to fall, which is great for exporters.

However, to drop interest rates, the bank must pump cash into the economy; causing inflation.

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John Key likes to present his Government as being fiscally responsible but in the past six years Government debt has exploded from $10b in 2008 to $60b today. It's still growing.

Neither Key nor David Cunliffe are showing any real desire to tackle this dragon and here is where Peters begins to resemble a well-suited Saint George.

If the Reserve Bank Act changes its primary focus from fighting inflation then it will run a loose monetary policy; either quantitative easing or straight money printing to lower the exchange rate and allow inflation to creep back up.

This will erode the real value of that $60b.

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But it isn't just the Government's debts that will be degraded. Anyone with cash in the bank or who relies on fixed incomes, cash reserves or rental incomes will be penalised.

There is an irony here. Many current New Zealand First supporters would have benefited from inflation when they were younger, seeing the real value of their mortgages fall as their houses' capital value increased.

They might not find its effects so benign second time around. It is perhaps just as well that they have that Gold Card to get around with.

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