It’s a trying time for the Government, with fuel prices and the Iran war affecting just about every Kiwi.
It’s something the Opposition knows all too well, handling a crisis not of their making, with Covid.
In the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon recorded his lowest personal approval rating yet at 17.3%. It’s his weakest result since becoming National’s leader in 2021.
Lawyer and political commentator Liam Hehir told The Front Page that when it comes to polls, it’s the trends that matter.
“A poll that has them just above 30% is not a whole lot better than a poll that has them just below 30% if the direction of travel is bad, and the direction of travel is not good for National at the moment.
“He [Luxon] should be worried about losing the election. I don’t think he needs to be worried about losing the National Party leadership, not this close to an election. Not when there isn’t a ready-made Jacinda Ardern waiting in the wings to step in and take over.
“But leadership often correlates very strongly with overall party performance. Not always, there can be a divergence. Nothing succeeds like success, nothing fixes problems like winning. At the same time, when things go wrong, they tend to go wrong all at once.”
Hehir said that while Luxon is most likely safe from the political chopping block, he has his challenges.
“The business talk, that is his background, and that’s what comes through. If he tries to be something other than what he is, it’s not gonna work.
“But, the problem is, that’s probably a very good Prime Minister for growth times ... That kind of persona does a lot better when sailing’s a lot smoother than it does when things are difficult.
“Because, if you’re a CEO type, when things are going strong, the CEO type manifests itself as competence, capability, a guy that knows what he’s doing. When times are going bad, that CEO sort of archetype reminds people of the person who laid off their Dad,” he said.
At current polling, National will likely need its coalition partners once again – the same partners that are most responsible for taking a bite out of the party’s voter base.
“There’s a good argument, I think, that Act and New Zealand First are like the parasite killing off its host.
“Once you have your first term over and done with, there’s normally a couple of things that are in play.
“First of all, the main opposition party is in disarray. It’s ill-disciplined, it’s had leadership disruptions, it doesn’t look like an alternative Government.
“Secondly, the support parties have tended to be on pretty good behaviour for the last two-and-a-half years because they wanna prove that they can govern and they lose their distinctiveness. So what you tend to have is a collapse of the wings and the centre on the other side, and the incumbent Government normally gets a big premium.
" This is the first time this hasn’t happened. Part of the reason is that New Zealand First and Act have been very clever. They have worked out that the way to survive in Government as a small party is to push the limit of collegiality to make themselves look different all the time, to maintain their sort of ‘bad boy’ status within the Government.
“Both parties have done that, and as a result, they’re both unusually strong. It’s the first time for New Zealand that we’ve had a genuine coalition looking for re-election where the minor parties have really increased in strength, and a lot of that’s come to the detriment of the National Party,” he said.
Listen to the full episode to hear more about:
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5pm. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.