Budget for transport woeful, says UK expert

Mark Casson

Auckland cannot afford "fantasy" projects such as a tunnel under the city centre, or even electric trains, says leading British economics professor and rail enthusiast Mark Casson.

Professor Casson, here as guest of Auckland University's business school, told the Herald a 10-year indicative budget of $11 billion for all the region's land transport needs - most of it for roads - was woefully inadequate.

"One of the ways of looking at it is what would a foreign direct investor considering establishing offices in Auckland think and, in particular, would the transport infrastructure influence their decision to locate in Auckland." he said.

"Eleven billion dollars over 10 years is not a realistic sum of money for turning what you've got into what a foreign direct investor would call a quality transport network," said the professor, who advises the British Government on business support measures.

"I would say probably $20 billion would be the minimum because rail infrastructure and bus lanes and all that is so incredibly expensive."

Professor Casson, head of economics at Reading University and director of its Centre for Institutional Performance, said everyone knew it was easy to overspend on large public projects "but it's also possible to underspend."

"That means you don't get enough to alter people's habits - if you spend too little, you're just throwing your money away, because you don't actually achieve anything," he said.

"I would go so far as to say that if the agenda is not to improve it further, maybe you should forget about investing any further. It can just then become a device for bringing the office cleaners to work and taking the kids to school.

"Nobody who owns a nice car and lives in Remuera will ever think about using it, and you are just condemned to a cheap option of mass transit of the relatively poor and deprived."

Although his comments will not hurt Auckland's bid for more Government money in difficult negotiations with state agency Ontrack over a funding formula for the regional rail network, the visitor's advice against spending on "fantasy" schemes will rile local political leaders.

Professor Casson said talk of an $800 million tunnel under Albert St to increase the capacity of Britomart, and even of electrifying the network, "just seems to be a bit like fantasy stuff to be honest - it is nowhere within the budget."

"The lesson from the United Kingdom is that it's the practical, micro-level measures that deliver the passenger benefits."

Such measures in Auckland should include building more rail loops around existing stations to allow express trains to pass slower services, relocating Newmarket Station, and relying on far more intensive signalling systems to boost Britomart's capacity.

"You have got to create that critical mass, to prove the concept before you enhance it further, and it seems to me that $11 billion over 10 years is barely sufficient to bring the Pukekohe line up to speed, let alone fulfilling other ambitions."

Although one senior regional official muttered informally about wanting to be "preserved from yet another Pommie expert", the professor said he did not want to be seen as arriving off an aircraft and telling everyone what to do.

"But I did land off the plane and get on the trains and buses," he said of a full week spent exploring Auckland by public transport.

He gained an impressive command of place names from his traverse of the entire rail network between Pukekohe and Waitakere.

Professor Casson, who is a member of a British railway demand-forecasting body, said Auckland's shortage of modern rolling stock seemed to be a major obstacle to improving passenger comfort and hence widening the customer base.

Auckland Regional Council's commitment to keeping annual rates hikes under a 5 per cent ceiling has left its transport authority considering the prospect of refurbishing more old trains rather than buying new stock.

Asked whether Waitakere City was being unrealistic in wanting New Lynn railway station to be laid underground for more than $100 million, he said this may work if local businesses could be persuaded to contribute to the project as part of a town centre redevelopment.

The only way to judge that was to undertake a "social cost-benefit" analysis, to quantify the advantages such a scheme may bring to a locality, an exercise to which he said all transport infrastructure investments should be subjected on a project-by-project basis.

Auckland City Mayor Dick Hubbard said urban design and air quality needs would count highly in a social cost-benefit analysis of rail electrification.