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Home / New Zealand

Budget 2020: Audrey Young - Simon Bridges vs Jacinda Ardern over $20 billion blank cheque

Audrey Young
By Audrey Young
Senior Political Correspondent·NZ Herald·
14 May, 2020 05:00 PM3 mins to read

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Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and National Party leader Simon Bridges in Parliament. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and National Party leader Simon Bridges in Parliament. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Audrey Young
Opinion by Audrey Young
Audrey Young, Senior Political Correspondent at the New Zealand Herald based at Parliament, specialises in writing about politics and power.
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COMMENT:

Jacinda Ardern says the Budget is a plan.

Simon Bridges says the Budget is an apology for a plan.

It is an argument they will have for the next couple of months.

They are both right.

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It is a plan to spend $50 billion in response to the Covid-19 economic crisis; we just don't know what on.

So the real questions are whether the spending plan we do know about - $30b - is justified and whether the Government is justified in giving itself a $20b blank cheque.

READ MORE:
• Budget 2020: What's been announced so far and what people want to see
• Budget 2020: The Government has confirmed a Tourism rescue package is part of the Budget
• Premium - Budget 2020: Michael Cullen and Steven Joyce on a Budget in a crisis
• Premium - Budget 2020: What does the Budget need to do? Five viewpoints

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There has been little criticism of the known expenditure. Most of it is unsurprising – jobs, training, infrastructure, housing, subsidies - and most of it could have occurred to varying degrees under a National Government in a bid to keep workers attached to work and businesses afloat.

The alternative would be higher spending on social welfare benefits and a slower recovery.

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Spending big in an economic downturn is not in dispute. It is the orthodox thing to do.

10Things
10Things

The unorthodox part is the blank cheque, or "slush fund" as National has started to call it.

Given that we can't be sure where we are in the economic crisis, the middle or just the start of it (definitely not at the end), it is impossible to know how much will be needed or when.

But given the fact that $10.8b has already been spent on the wage subsidy in two months, it is not unreasonable to expect that $20b over the next four years could easily be soaked up.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will have a big advantage going into the election. Photo / Marty Melville
Finance Minister Grant Robertson and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will have a big advantage going into the election. Photo / Marty Melville

If there is hope in the Budget, the "fund" may give some people hope that Government assistance will not fall off a cliff when the wage subsidy ends.

For most people, it will be a comfort to know it could be called on, even if it is a rather expensive security blanket.

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And of course there is no imperative to spend it.

It gives Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson an advantage in the four months before the election on September 19.

It gives them options to either spend or make expensive promises, which is National's big objection.

It is not actually, a separate fund but a way of organising expenditure and setting some expectations.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson with copies of his Budget 2020 on Parliament steps. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Finance Minister Grant Robertson with copies of his Budget 2020 on Parliament steps. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Treasury's forecasts are predictably grim with the current year ending in a $28b deficit and the next two years not much better. The operating deficit declines to just $5b in four years, a trend in the right direction.

Debt is forecast to rise from $89b to a previously unthinkable $200b in four years.

But even Robertson is encouraging caution when interpreting the books.

The trouble with trends is they are only as good as the forecasts on economic activity and as Robertson said yesterday: "Economic forecasting is more of an art than a science at the best of times, but more so than ever now."

There is no question that he has delivered his third Budget with his fingers crossed.

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