Budget 2015: English's 'El Dorado' pushed out

Finance Minister Bill English reading his Budget 2015. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The "El Dorado" for Bill English, reaching operating surplus, has been pushed out for a year to 2015-16 but it is forecast to be a razor-thin $176 million.

It rises to $1.47 billion in 2016-17 and $1.99 billion in 2017-18 when the Budget says the Government will again start cutting income tax.

Since 2011, Mr English's Budgets have forecast the surplus for 2014-15.

But falling dairy prices and virtual zero inflation has meant Government revenues have increased more slowly than expected.

Mr English gave notice this month that yesterday's opening of the books would definitely not post the surplus which this time last year was forecast to be $372 million.

It has turned into a $684 million deficit.

The actual figure when the year ends in June will not be published until October.

Returning to surplus in 2015-16 is Treasury's forecasts in expected conditions.

It also has a worse case scenario of returning to surplus in the 2017-18 year which was based on a larger fall in export commodity prices.

A brighter that central scenario would see the surplus next year increase a little from the impact of a "possible" larger household spending response to the low inflation environment an and higher net migration.