The demise of the minor parties is one of the key issues of this election campaign. Many commentators have noted that despite the MMP electoral system, New Zealand appears to be shifting back towards a two-party system in which the minors barely feature. Certainly we're supporting them in much lower numbers. Back in the first MMP election of 1996, about 4 in 10 voters favoured a minor party, but now in the sixth MMP election, only 1-2 in 10 voters will bother with a minor party. Matt McCarten covers this in his weekend column, pointing out that 'This election day we are on track to have the lowest support for third parties in 24 years' - see: Never-say-die Goff has plenty of guts. Similarly, Jonathan Milne notes that 'National and Labour are hoovering up 83 per cent of the vote, according to the latest Herald-Digipoll - a bigger share than in any other election for a quarter of a century' - see: The perils of unbridled government. Milne elaborates on the marginalisation of the minors: 'Like the other small parties, the Greens will instead be gently squeezed to the periphery of politics. Already, NZ First is gone and all the serving Act MPs are retiring. So too Jim Anderton, the last scrappy remnant of the Alliance. Hone Harawira, John Banks and Peter Dunne may each hold on to one last Parliamentary seat, but only by their fingertips. They won't be a powerful influence on the next parliament'.
Surely this isn't how MMP was supposed to be? Part of the problem seems to lie with the minor parties themselves. It increasingly appears as if the minor parliamentary parties have run out of steam and dynamism. Like the major parties, the minors have attempted to take on a 'catch-all' type approach in order to win votes, while watering down their policies in order to offend the fewest voters. In their quest to occupy the soft centre ground, they have become less political and programmatic. In this sense, the minor parties are proving to be no more resistant to a larger trend that has affected the majors - the need to professionalise and operate more like businesses than political organizations representing civil society. Even the Greens and Act - parties who supposedly pitch themselves to people of principle and conviction rather than to the middle ground - have been moving fast towards the centre, moderating their programmes.
But there is a sense in which the decline of the minor parties also owes itself to a new ideological public mood in which there is less space for parties of principle or those advocating significant change. The decline of ideology goes hand-in-hand with the increasing unpopularity of so-called 'extreme' politics. The new moderation in parliamentary politics means that anything outside the sphere of orthodoxy is painted as extremism. In this new climate there is a tendency for minor party politicians to say nothing rather than risk causing offence.
But perhaps it's not just the fault of the minor parties themselves. Both Labour and National have, at times, successfully tried to destroy or at least seriously hurt, their 'natural' minor party partner. So the National under Shipley's leadership aimed to kneecap New Zealand First, and Labour, under Clark's careful management, helped to destroy the Alliance. Both the Alliance and New Zealand First were the most successful minor parties in the post-FPP environment. Their existence and popular support helped to build up an interesting MMP environment where the old Lab-Nat duopoly seemed in rapid decline. The demise of these parties has shaped the consciousness of today's voters who now essentially think in a default FFP mode.
With the demise of New Zealand First and the Alliance, surviving minor parties have decided to be hyper cautious. This has led to them becoming rather forgettable entities - United Future and the Progressives are the worst examples of this phenomenon. And both Labour and National have rewarded such cautiousness by awarding these party leaders cushy jobs.
