The Green surge continues. The Green Party has so far had a near perfect election campaign, and they have strategically repositioned themselves for considerable mainstream success next week. They're on track to peak just at the right time - the three opinion polls released in the last 24-hours all put them on remarkable 13% of the vote - see, for example: Labour hits ten year low in latest poll. iPredict now has the Greens on a projected 11.3% party vote which suggests that pundits believe the Greens won't suffer badly from the usual problems the party has getting its own supporters to actually turn up to the polling booths.
This has made the Greens the party to watch during the campaign. The party has received ample media coverage - and, according to recent academic research, they've received a greater proportion of positive coverage than any other party. But there is a lack of detailed examination of the party, especially since it has changed so dramatically in recent years. They really are the 'New Greens' under new management.
A re-examination of the Green Party is particularly important in light of its significant new coalition policy of 'leaving the door open' to supporting a National Government. This really is central to the new-look Greens. It has made the party appear more relevant to any post-election scenario, and has underlined the party's new centrist political positioning. But would the party really go into a coalition with the rightwing National Party? Officially the line is that it would be 'highly unlikely', but this is frustratingly vague, especially as it becomes apparent there is no chance of a Labour-led government. At the moment, iPredict has projected the likelihood of this happening under the trading stock of: 'At least one Green Party MP to be a Minister in next government'. Currently the stock is trading at 19% - which is certainly greater than 'highly unlikely'.
Rightwing political commentator Matthew Hooton says that the Greens will be a crucial determinant of the make-up of the next National government - see his analysis on the Stratos iPredict election programme last night. Hooton predicts that after the election John Key will invite Russel Norman into his government, with policy sweeteners and the chance to sideline the Act Party.
Political/financial journalist Pattrick Smellie is also of the opinion that the Greens are now at the centre of - not just the political spectrum - but of determining future coalition governments - see: 2014 and the Greens: the timetable that really counts. Smellie says that 'National will almost certainly have to deal more constructively and actively with the Green Party than it might have otherwise, since the Greens will again be the third largest party in the next Parliament'.
