David Shearer may have just locked in his shot at becoming the next prime minister. With changes to Labour's leadership election rules, although he will have to win a majority caucus confidence vote next year, after that the task of any leadership challenger will be much harder. The most obvious change is that of having to build support amongst members and union affiliates to win a vote. But the changes of process probably have more impact in practical terms.
Under these new 'incumbency protection' rules, a challenge can only be initiated by two-thirds of the caucus. It's worth noting that successful leadership coups don't normally start with a majority, but rely on spooking enough waverers in the final run to build a majority, which is then presented to the incumbent as a fait accompli. Having to get two-thirds formally signed up before the voting even starts will make it impossible to stab your colleague in the back without having to actually eyeball them. Coups often rely on speed and stealth in the early stages, but the new required membership vote will take time and give the incumbent a huge opportunity and a public platform to fight back. The classic hurried return flight of the leader from an overseas jaunt and dreaded airport briefing from loyalists will be a thing of the past for Labour leaders.
As I commented to Claire Trevett (see: Labour makes it harder to dump leader) this is probably a good move for Labour. Leadership coups are usually motivated by growing panic by MPs about their personal political survival. The mere possibility of a leadership coup is usually has a corrosive effect on polls and provides an opportunity for political opponents to make mischief. Labour is smart to reduce that threat and distraction. Introducing a broader and longer-term perspective to choosing its leader will make the party more stable and the choice more considered.
Of course Labour could go much further, as No Right Turn points out in his evaluation - see: An improvement, but not democracy. It is actually quite common overseas (and even amongst New Zealand's smaller political parties) to give party members 100% of the say over who leads the party. While the changes seem to have approval from The Standard (see Mike Smith's Labour's review - a good job well done), David Farrar claims a united union vote would give them decisive power - see: Unions gain vote on Labour leader.
There are other changes to the list selection and policy process and a move to strengthen regional campaign organisation to build the party vote rather than individual electorates - see: Vernon Small Unions gain Labour leader vote. Electorate selection has not yet been reviewed but Labour president Moira Coatsworth told RNZ's Morning Report that a task force will look at how to ensure more women stand in safe seats - see: Labour president wants more women in safe seats.
