Brash keeps Orewa focus under wraps

National leader Don Brash is weighing up several options for his crucial second scene-setting Orewa speech next week, deciding whether to focus on welfare, education or a prime ministerial vision.

His advisers are understood to have drafted speeches on all three topics and are finalising which area he should highlight at the Orewa Rotary Club next Tuesday.

They are worried it will be impossible for "Orewa II" to have the same impact of last year's race relations speech, which catapulted Dr Brash and his party up the polls.

Strategists have been evaluating whether it is wiser to limit expectations by giving an indication of what the speech will contain.

But they fear this could backfire, giving the Government early ammunition with which to attack it.

The details are likely to be made public at the weekend.

The Government yesterday showed it wasn't planning to wait for help before launching an offensive, announcing a $27 million package to get beneficiaries back to work.

It focused on the long-term unemployed and on sickness and invalid benefits, regular National targets.

Social Development and Employment Minister Steve Maharey said while the announcement had been in the pipeline for some time, it also doubled as a pre-emptive strike ahead of the Orewa speech in which welfare may be a focus.

National's welfare policy has yet to be released, but has now been largely signed off.

The party's draft welfare policy focused on issues such as the reintroduction of work or training for the dole, bringing back work-testing for those on the DPB and time-limited benefits.

In a November education speech Dr Brash promised to pay teachers more, but to diminish the power of their unions.

He also pledged to reduce the education bureaucracy and to improve literacy and numeracy rates.

Dr Brash attempted to hose down any expectations the speech could have a similar result for the party as last year's.

"Clearly we hope that the Orewa speech will have a useful impact on the public's perception of the National Party. But I think any expectation that we can look forward to a 17 per cent jump in the polls, as we got last year, is quite unrealistic."

Act leader Rodney Hide said Dr Brash could never expect to repeat last year's performance.

"The important thing for the Opposition to do is to paint the alternative for Government."

Dr Brash had the "common touch" and his biggest challenge was to reach out to the middle voter and "to convince them that this isn't as good as it gets. There's quite a bit of frustration out there, but people are thinking "what is the alternative?"

Business Roundtable executive director Roger Kerr said there were a range of important topics including the economy, welfare and education which were worthy of a stronger political contest.Mr Maharey predicted a speech on tax cuts, but said National would probably use crime and welfare as a way to invoke anti-Maori sentiment.

Political visions

* The political 'state of the nation' season has arrived.

* The Greens were first out of the blocks on Sunday, urging a change in gas-guzzling habits.

* Labour's outspoken MP John Tamihere blasted the Maori Party yesterday. Act leader Rodney Hide delivers his view today.

* Next Tuesday Don Brash returns to Orewa, the place where last year his address transformed the political landscape.