Birch to clear decks for poll

By Vernon Small

political reporter

The Treasurer, Bill Birch, will deliver the Government's self-styled "family friendly" Budget today with one eye on an election in November.

Released under the slogan "investing in the next generation" the Budget will be the last major set piece for the minority Government, which expects to pass the rest of its key legislative measures under the umbrella of Budget urgency.

That will clear the way for the individual parties, including National, to promote themselves in the runup to polling day.

Key to that is the change from Mr Birch to Bill English as Treasurer, due to take effect on July 1, and the release of National's election programme at its annual conference later that month.

A better-than-expected economic recovery since December and the sale of Contact Energy will allow Mr Birch to trumpet a surplus of almost $2 billion for the year to June 1999 and dangle the possibility of tax cuts if National is returned to power.

But the normally cautious Mr Birch is expected to earmark only about $100 million for new spending announcements in each of the next three years.

Fiscal Responsibility Act requirements for increased disclosure of the state of the Government's accounts have taken most surprises out of the Budget. But today's is likely to hold fewer unheralded moves than usual after leaks planned and unplanned.

Key elements already flagged include:

* The conditions for future tax cuts.

* Abolition or reduction in the broadcasting fee, stamp and cheque duty.

* Cash for information technology in schools, and greater coordination between education, science, research and development.

* New capital funding arrangements for schools and tertiary institutions.

* A "baby bonus" allowance in lieu of paid parental leave.

* An end to lawyers' monopoly on conveyancing.

* An increase in motor vehicle registration fees as the Government moves to fully finance ACC's motor vehicle accident account.

In interviews, Mr Birch has hinted at small, targeted initiatives rather than the big spending on social policy areas that have characterised the past two Budgets.

Health was allocated $200 million in new spending in December's Budget policy statement.

Labour's finance spokesman, Michael Cullen, expects the Budget to look busy, but contain measures too small and fussy to achieve anything meaningful.