Bay of Plenty weather: Dry conditions tipped for rest of week; cyclone risk looms

The Bay of Plenty could be in the firing line of another cyclone packed with damaging winds, big seas and heavy rain, but generally fine conditions are expected for the rest of the week.

Heavy rain lashed parts of the upper North Island last week and caused widespread damage and disruption to roads, properties and businesses across the Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, Northland, Waikato and Auckland.

A red heavy rain warning was issued for Rotorua last week and parts of the Rotorua Lakefront boardwalk were closed due to damage and washouts. In Tauranga, 24 homes were evacuated after a landslide crashed into houses in Maungatapu on January 28.

It comes as another tropical cyclone looks set to form in the Coral Sea tomorrow before moving down towards the east and south of New Caledonia and potentially hitting New Zealand.

Forecaster WeatherWatch said it will be at least another 72 hours before models tracking the cyclone’s course towards New Zealand can be more certain, but the current forecast is “certainly ominous”.

All three modellers expect the storm to reach our shores by early Tuesday morning next week.

MetService meteorologist John Law said it was “keeping a close eye on the situation” and would get a better idea of its track once it had formed.

“[It] has the potential to bring some significant impacts to us in New Zealand, particularly across the northern parts of the country. [It] could bring some heavy rainfall, some stronger winds and some higher seas as well.

“So, although it’s still a way away and there is still uncertainty, it is a forecast to be keeping a very close eye on.”

If the system passes close to the North Island, it would be another significant weather event potentially affecting vulnerable areas still recovering from recent severe weather.

Should any severe weather be expected to impact New Zealand, more detailed advice will be provided in outlooks, watches and warnings for severe weather on the MetService website.

MetService meteorologist April Clark told the Rotorua Daily Post the Bay of Plenty, including Rotorua and Tauranga, was looking pretty dry for the rest of the week with generally fine weather.

“All those showers coming in from the west are getting nicely stopped by Central Plateau and the Kaimais. There is a ridge of high pressure that will be building from midweek which could bring a few cloudy periods and a possible shower or two.”

She said the earliest the cyclone looked to develop was Sunday, but its tracking was not clear at this stage.

“It’s still sitting out south [of] the Solomon Islands, and it’s just a tropical low at the moment, but the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia is expecting that to intensify into a tropical cyclone [tomorrow],” Clark said.

Exactly how severe the impacts would be in terms of strong easterlies and heavy rain was something to keep an eye on later in the week.

Rotorua was expected to reach 24C today with fine breaks and south-westerlies, and Tauranga was expected to reach a high of 26C with fine breaks and westerlies.

This comes as parts of the Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, Northland, Waikato and Auckland clean up following last week’s unprecedented weather.

The downpours led to Auckland having its wettest day in history, recording 245 millimetres of rain which caused deadly floods that claimed the lives of four people.

Auckland and the Thames-Coromandel District remain under states of emergency.