Backlash may drive Sutton back home

If the National Party is looking for inspiration to break Labour's grip on power, it may find it in sleepy South Canterbury.

The region dominates the Aoraki electorate, which for over a decade has been a Labour Party stronghold.

But in the past month National's fresher face has it ahead in the local poll in the lead-up to the September 17 election.

The only independent poll conducted in Aoraki sees National newcomer Jo Goodhew leading sitting Labour MP and Agriculture Minister Jim Sutton by 6 per cent in a two-horse race for the electorate seat.

In the party vote in the electorate, the poll by the local Timaru Herald newspaper put National ahead on 34.6 per cent over Labour at 31.7 per cent. The poll of 406 voters put Mrs Goodhew at 36.9 per cent support and Mr Sutton at 30.9 per cent.

Mr Sutton goes into the election with a 6453-vote majority, but he is facing a backlash from school closures in the region, his involvement in the Prime Minister's speeding motorcade and his Government's controversial rural land access policies.

On present nationwide polling, both Mr Sutton and Mrs Goodhew can expect to make it into Parliament on their list placings alone. Mr Sutton is ranked 11th on the Labour list and Mrs Goodhew is 31st on the National list.

But this has not diminished the battle for the Aoraki electorate seat.

"I desperately want to be their MP," Mrs Goodhew says.

"I want to work in the National Party team, number one. But locally I want to be the representative for these people."

The 44-year mother of three estimates she has knocked on the doors of about 10,000 homes and businesses in Aoraki since the campaign began.

"People who meet me are happy to see the face and talk to the person. There are criticisms that the incumbent is not seen here very often."

Mr Sutton concedes he is up against an "energetic" opponent, but says he is happy to be judged on his record in the electorate. He has been MP in the region since 1993.

"I have been working and (Mrs Goodhew) has been door-knocking for months. There's a difference between going around and blowing your own trumpet and actually working and delivering," Mr Sutton says.

About 41,759 are enrolled to vote in Aoraki and almost half are aged 50 or over.

On a fog-shrouded day on the main street of Timaru, the New Zealand Herald found many voters are still undecided and many know little about the candidates.

Housewife Shirley Brokenshire, 57, says she will probably vote Labour "since Timaru is a Labour seat". She is not sure about who she will give her electorate vote to. "I don't care for Jim Sutton."

Asked about her view on Jo Goodhew she says: "I don't know anything about her, except that her husband is a dentist".

Labourer Rodney Parke, 59, is also still deciding but thinks he might go for National and Mrs Goodhew: "Sutton has been there long enough."

Mother of two, Leonie Hannah, 38, says she will give her party vote and electoral vote to National.

Mr Sutton was "a bit weak" and it was time for a change. Mrs Goodhew has the energy to do a good job, she says.

Stonemason Richard O'Leary says he will give his party vote and electoral vote to the Greens, even though he doesn't know who the local Green Party candidate is. He is voting that way because he is most interested in environmental issues and the country's overseas debt.

Mrs Goodhew, a trained nurse and specialist in the crime prevention field, concedes she has benefited from "body blows" to Labour in Aoraki such as the recent closure or merger of 13 schools.

"I think that there was probably the perception by Labour that they would have settled down by now. The reality is the schools are still in disarray. "

Mr Sutton says there had to be "rationalisation" of the school network and the changes have resulted in excellent outcomes for the region.

"I understand it is an emotional thing when a school closes because they are closely associated with community identity ... and so on, so I feel for that."

Timaru troubles

* Sitting MP Jim Sutton has represented the region since 1993.

* His majority in 2002 was 6453.

* He faces a spirited challenge from National's Jo Goodhew and a voter backlash from school closures and land access issues.

* There could also be collateral damage from his role as a passenger in the Prime Minister's speeding motorcade.