Axe poised over Tariana Turia

By RUTH BERRY, political reporter

Prime Minister Helen Clark is poised to sack Tariana Turia from her ministerial posts today, in a showdown which could result in a byelection.

The Government has been desperate to avoid a byelection, which Mrs Turia could create by resigning from Parliament if she is stripped of her portfolios.

Labour leaders have tried to negotiate several arrangements with Mrs Turia over her opposition to the foreshore legislation.

But she threw down the gauntlet yesterday, confirming on Radio Waatea that she intended to vote against the legislation and to join the foreshore hikoi when it marched from Wanganui.

It is the first time Mrs Turia has publicly said she would vote against the bill and join the march.

Helen Clark yesterday refused to say how she would deal with the challenge at today's Labour caucus meeting.

Negotiations with Mrs Turia were continuing last night.

But the Prime Minister's position is understood to have hardened after Mrs Turia's unexpected announcement.

Sunday night's One News-Colmar Brunton poll showing National well ahead of Labour is likely to have contributed to her determination to resolve the issue.

Mrs Turia is understood to have previously agreed to accept the temporary loss of her ministerial positions in exchange for voting against the legislation.

They would have been reinstated once the legislation was passed, expected to be late this year.

But she told Waatea broadcaster Willie Jackson yesterday that she had been asked to resign her warrants, but would not.

"I haven't done anything wrong, and usually people resign because they have done something wrong. They've either been drink-driving or not quite told the truth in a way the public would expect."

Mrs Turia is Minister for the Community and Voluntary Sector and an Associate Minister of Social Development and Employment, Housing, Health and Maori Affairs.

A full range of options, ranging from permanent removal of her ministerial posts to no censure, is understood to have been discussed at the Cabinet meeting yesterday.

But ministers are understood to have been firm that Helen Clark had to be seen to take a strong stance on the issue.

The situation has the hallmarks of a standoff. The Government does not want to make Mrs Turia a political martyr.

She has warned she would resign if stripped of her responsibilities.

She has a realistic chance of winning a byelection, which would also divert attention from the May 27 Budget - a crucial political showpiece for a Government desperate to recover lost ground in the opinion polls.

A well-placed source said late yesterday that there was now no question Helen Clark would carry out her threat to remove Mrs Turia's ministerial posts if she voted against the foreshore legislation.

Mrs Turia refused to comment after the radio interview.

But a source said the Te Tai Hauauru MP was still evaluating her options and would be keen to hear the views of caucus colleagues today.

Educationist Pita Sharples, a supporter of Mrs Turia, said yesterday that there was no question a byelection would be held if she lost her ministerial posts.

He believed Mrs Turia could be the catalyst needed to unite Maori behind a new Maori political party.

Day of reckoning

* Rebel minister Tariana Turia vowed yesterday to vote against the Government's seabed legislation.

* Her uncompromising position puts her at odds with Prime Minister Helen Clark, who may sack Mrs Turia.

* This could force a byelection in Mrs Turia's Te Tai Hauauru Maori seat.

* There is every chance the MP could retain the seat - which she holds by more than 7000 votes - and inflict a heavy defeat on Labour.