Jacinda Ardern is lowering expectations for the first reshuffle of her Cabinet.
The Prime Minister originally billed it to take place at the start of this year but when the start of the year came around, she postponed until after the Budget.
After the Budget came around, she postponedit until the end of June or the start of July.
There is no pressing need for a reshuffle but having foreshadowed one, Ardern is obliged to go through with it, if only to keep faith with Labour's ambitious back bench.
Kris Faafoi's elevation to the Cabinet from his present position as a minister outside Cabinet is a foregone conclusion, barring some unforeseen scandal in the next few weeks.
That will fill the vacancy of Clare Curran which Ardern chose not to fill when Curran resigned in September under pressure from her failures to disclose meetings she should have revealed.
The vacancy outside Cabinet created by Faafoi's promotion to Cabinet is most likely to be filled by Roskill MP and parliamentary under-secretary Michael Wood.
He is more experienced than the first-term MPs, having entered Parliament in the 2016 byelection and has proven a safe pair of hands.
His vacancy as a parliamentary under-secretary does not have to be filled but could be filled by list MP Kiritapu Allan if Ardern is looking to reward a talented back bencher.
Alternatively, Ardern also has the option of altering the agreements with New Zealand First and the Greens to promote the two other parliamentary under-secretaries, Fletcher Tabuteau and Jan Logie, to ministers outside Cabinet. Certainly the work of those MPs are worthy of recognition.
There is one more place to fill, the vacancy of a minister outside Cabinet left by Meka Whaitiri, who was sacked after a report into an alleged assault against a staff member.
Again there is no imperative that says that vacancy needs to be filled. In fact not filling it would be the safest alternative for Ardern. Filling it could cause resentment in Labour's Māori caucus.
Reinstating Whaitiri is not an option.
Although Ardern left open that possibility when announcing Whaitiri's dismissal last September, the former minister's decision to do a round of media interviews last month denying she had touched the staffer and lobbying for her old job back has ruled her out of an early return.
Ardern said this week she did not expect any substantive changes in the reshuffle which suggests that her problem ministers are safe.
Jacinda Ardern, her ministers and under-secretaries after being sworn in by Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy in October 2017. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Shane Jones, Ardern's perennial problem minister, appears to be taking a less cavalier approach than before although a reshuffle for him has never been contemplated, being a minister in the party that keeps Labour in power.
Moving David Clark from Health and Phil Twyford from Housing could well be more problematic than leaving them there.
Having delivered a Budget with a $1.9 billion boost in mental health funding over five years, it would be a risk to replace Clark now just when momentum and expert knowledge is needed for the roll-out of new services.
And the Housing problems facing Twyford are not going to solved by replacing him but in the Government setting KiwiBuild targets grounded in reality.
He is also overseeing the imminent amalgamation of Housing New Zealand, its development subsidiary HLC and the KiwiBuild unit into the Housing and Urban Development Authority.
The fewer moving parts in a Cabinet reshuffle, the less chance for upset.
The lower the expectations, the less chance for disappointment.
