Jacinda Ardern's reshuffle creates several new contests when ministers with new jobs come up against Christopher Luxon's team in Parliament. Audrey Young looks at who is pitted against whom, and how they are likely to fare.
POLICE Chris Hipkins vs Mark Mitchell
This will be the most highly-anticipated contest giventhe changing of the guard from one of the least confident ministers to one of the most confident and competent in Chris Hipkins. He has several attributes that predecessor Poto Williams did not have – the ability to think quickly on his feet under pressure in the House and an ability to admit to the Government having problems, without accepting the blame.
That is how he excelled at Covid management, by admitting to the problems and being clear about the options.
Until the recent spate of drive-by shootings in Auckland, Question Time had become a cat and mouse game between Mark Mitchell and Williams over gang tensions, with Mitchell intent on getting Williams to even acknowledge that gang tensions had risen under the current Government. She made Mitchell look better than he actually is in the House.
Chris Hipkins and Mark Mitchell.
JUSTICE Kiri Allan vs Paul Goldsmith
Top marks to Kiri Allan for accepting early requests to talk to the news media despite barely having her feet under the Justice desk. Predecessor Kris Faafoi has resisted recent requests, possibly because he did not want to have to answer questions about policy plans he knew he did not intend to pursue because of his impending resignation.
This contest will be more interesting, anyway. Allan's opponent, Paul Goldsmith, has found fresh political legs since being shifted in November to justice from education, where he was withering.
She is a former lawyer and already has the feel of someone more comfortable in the job than Faafoi but she has barely faced political pressure in her previous roles in Conservation and Emergency Management. She and Goldsmith have exchanged opening salvoes already over crime rates and whether the Government is "soft on crime" – a term she detests.
She correctly says that any changes to crime rates under Labour have occurred without changes to sentencing. He correctly points out that changes are underway, however, with the repeal of the Three Strikes law close. The Hate Speech laws will be the biggest test.
Kiri Allan and Paul Goldsmith.
COVID-19 RESPONSE Ayesha Verrall vs Chris Bishop
Despite New Zealanders dying daily in the Covid pandemic, there is no longer a sense of crisis in the Covid-19 issue, which gives Jacinda Ardern the confidence to hand it from Chris Hipkins to the less proven Ayesha Verrall. This is one of the more asymmetrical head-to-head contests in terms of political experience.
Chris Bishop is one of National's best performers and knows how to prosecute a case on the floor of the House, if he has a genuine case. However, Verrall's clinical experience as an infectious diseases specialist gives her an advantage with the public to a point.
An added advantage for Verrall is that Bishop is away and isolating with Covid. But when he returns it may be with a vengeance. Fingers crossed there is no new fatal variant.
This is the contest that promises to ignite from time to time from a combination of combustible personalities and contentious policies. And both are former broadcasters themselves. Willie Jackson, in his capacity as Māori Development Minister, has been the Government's go-to guy on the issue of co-governance, in which his favoured form of defence has been attack.
That won't cut it as he shepherds the RNZ–TVNZ merger through in his new job. It is a different and specialist audience and he will be expected to be right across the detail and the arguments.
Melissa Lee has had broadcasting for a long time but has made little headway since claiming the scalp of Clare Curran in the first term. Jackson will have to be disciplined not to make himself a target.
Willie Jackson and Melissa Lee.
SPEAKER Trevor Mallard vs David Seymour
The date of Mallard's departure from politics has not yet been finalised but he is likely to have just five more full sitting weeks as Speaker before handing over to deputy Adrian Rurawhe in August.
That gives Act leader David Seymour five weeks to try to destroy him and, by association, Jacinda Ardern, for agreeing to give Mallard a diplomatic posting.
Mallard and Seymour started off this term on good terms but relations soured after run-ins over various rulings such as the He Puapua report, and they have never recovered.
It will be a test of Mallard's diplomatic skills not to rise to the bait.
