Audrey Young: Expect the unexpected

This election feels tighter than others. Photo / Supplied, Getty Images

This time a year ago, the last thing anyone would have predicted was a general election featuring Jacinda Ardern vs Bill English.

John Key was Prime Minister and Andrew Little was the Labour leader.

Politics in New Zealand was being eclipsed by riveting events in other parts of the world.

The British vote to leave the European Union had occurred, and the dramatic United States presidential election campaign was under way.

Polls came in for some criticism after both of those votes, but in fact a relatively small number of voters in both contests could have affected the final outcome.

In Britain if 635,000 people out of 33.5 million who cast their vote had voted differently, the result would have been different.

In the US Hillary Clinton received almost 3 million more votes than Donald Trump and if she had secured the votes of 38,875 Trump voters in three states -- Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania -- the result would have been different.

Perhaps some people stayed home because they took the polls too literally and believed their preference was a cinch or that their vote didn't matter.

In New Zealand, voting under MMP is proportional. The number of votes a party gets in the party vote is directly reflected in the number of seats it gets in Parliament, so long as they get at least one electorate or win 5 per cent of the vote.

The party vote is the most important in determining which party or parties will run the country. The electorate vote is for the local MP.

Despite the direct proportionality, at the last election in New Zealand almost one million people who were eligible to vote didn't. Some didn't enrol at all and almost 700,000 of them were enrolled but didn't vote.

This election may change that.

Polls have already had a major impact in this election by precipitating the resignation of Little and propelling Ardern on to the national stage and her party up the polls.

Government formation is usually a close-run thing under MMP when there are seven or eight parties.

But this election feels tighter than others because the two largest parties are polling more closely than they have for some years. That is almost certain to result in a larger interest in the election and a higher turnout of voters.

Instead of us watching the world, the world is watching us.