Auckland in firing line for thunderstorms this evening

Auckland will catch the edge of the atmospheric river moving up the country this afternoon, putting it in the firing line for thunderstorms.

MetService is not certain of the impacts of the wild weather, but if the thunderstorms do occur, they will be accompanied by localised heavy rain.

The weather is caused by a deepening trough of low pressure that is currently lying over the upper North Island, strengthened by an associated rain band in other areas of the North Island.

Kei whea te Ika-a-Māui?/Where is the North Island? 🤔

Covered in kapua/cloud, we can see from the ground radar where all the ua/rain is

🟡🟠Heavy Rain Watches and Warnings remain in place - stay up to date at https://t.co/qHyE5zzql5

⏰In the last 6 hours we've had the… pic.twitter.com/khiypearjh

— MetService (@MetService) September 25, 2023

The weather is expected to continue into tomorrow morning, with a large shallow low responsible. This covers a wider area of the North Island.

The broad low risk of thunderstorms will cover northern and central North Island areas from Hawke’s Bay and the Central High Country northwards.

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After a month’s worth of rain was predicted to fall over the previous two days, the East Coast will be hoping for respite on Tuesday. A heavy rain warning has been issued by MetService for today’s weather in the Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, and Gisborne/Tairāwhiti areas north of Gisborne City.

🌧Some rainfall totals so far
🌧 More is yet to come for these areas with Heavy Rain Watches and Warnings still in force - an update to these will happen this morning
⏰Stay up to date at https://t.co/qHyE5zzql5 pic.twitter.com/ixeHW6ouuu

— MetService (@MetService) September 24, 2023

Additionally, there are heavy rain watches in effect for the Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne/Tairāwhiti to the south of Gisborne City, and Hawke’s Bay to the north of Napier.

As Tuesday continues, there is a chance an area spanning from Waikato and Rotorua to the Central High Country and Hawke’s Bay will be affected by thunderstorms associated with the moving complex low.

In the afternoon, MetService warned heavy rain at rates of 10-25 millimetres an hour is possible. MetService reported the risk of these storms is “very low”, but if they do occur, surface flooding will occur, making driving hazardous.

On Wednesday, MetService anticipates a brief increase in wind speed over the north of the North Island.

Behind this ridge, a typically El Nino southwesterly flow develops over the rest of the nation, bringing showery weather to the western coastlines and on to Northland through Thursday.

As the intricate low-pressure system finally moves away towards the Pacific, it continues to be mostly dry for places like Southland, Otago, and Gisborne at this time.