NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / New Zealand

Auckland floods: Mayor Wayne Brown says MetService should have owned up to poor modelling sooner

By Caitlan Johnston
Multimedia journalist·NZ Herald·
23 Oct, 2023 11:25 PM3 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

The All Blacks prepare to face South Africa, how much the set-to-be-axed lightrail project has cost so far and Christchurch terror attack inquest begins. Video / NZ Herald

Auckland mayor Wayne Brown said it would have been nice if MetService were quicker to admit that its weather forecasting models ahead of the devastating Auckland floods in January performed badly.

Yesterday, findings from a MetService review revealed the models were poor and needed to be updated urgently alongside their severe weather warning system.

“I got a fair caning from the press including you guys for failing to predict something the weather forecasters couldn’t predict,” Brown told AM.

“It’s taken them a while to come good on it but I’m glad they have. It would have been nice if they owned up a bit earlier.

“The media might understand now that not everything is the mayor’s fault.”

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Evacuations were part of Auckland-wide Anniversary Weekend flood response action amidst record rainfall.
Evacuations were part of Auckland-wide Anniversary Weekend flood response action amidst record rainfall.

On that night, January 27, Brown said there were no suggestions from the MetService team that they were surprised by the conditions.

However, he said he was very surprised by what happened.

“There was no warning at all,” he said.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

“They told us it was going to be 20mm of rain and it was 20 times what they [said].”

“With all the money and satellites and bits and pieces I think they could have done better.”

Brown said the weather event was a learning point for his teams as well, and that they even had some “blunders.

“Nobody had my phone number for instance.”

He said he got stuck in to make sure the performance of Auckland’s Emergency Management was fixed quickly.

“It was tested about five days later and it went a lot better,” he said.

Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown at the West Harbour Fire Station fronting the media in relation to the worst flooding the Auckland region has ever experienced.
Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown at the West Harbour Fire Station fronting the media in relation to the worst flooding the Auckland region has ever experienced.

The review examined MetService’s performance before and during the Auckland Anniversary storm and Cyclone Gabrielle two weeks later. Taken together, the two events caused up to $14.5 billion in damage and killed 15 people, making them among the worst natural disasters in New Zealand’s history.

“Performance of all available weather models in the lead-up to the Auckland Anniversary storm was poor,” the agency said in an internal review of the event, which has not been publicly released until now.

“Substantial changes” were also required to the agency’s severe weather warning system in the aftermath of the unprecedented deluge, according to a summary of the review obtained by the Herald under the Official Information Act.

The Herald has obtained Microsoft Teams chats between MetService staff which show how they reacted to the realisation on that Friday night that their models had been inaccurate.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

“This is just madness,” one employee posted at 11.44pm, after reviewing unprecedented rainfall measurements across the city.

“The models WERE NOT going for these amounts,” another wrote.

“I still can’t believe it,” another said the next morning.

Caitlan Johnston is a breaking news reporter based in Waikato. She joined the Herald in 2022.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from New Zealand

New Zealand

'Lots of frost': NZ braces for sub-zero chill, possible 'heavy rain' before Matariki

16 Jun 08:21 AM
New ZealandUpdated

'Sharp instincts': $7.5m meth haul intercepted by Customs

16 Jun 08:19 AM
New Zealand|crimeUpdated

Tribesmen's alleged 'hotbox' murder after gang member's unauthorised online shopping

16 Jun 07:30 AM

The woman behind NZ’s first PAK’nSAVE

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from New Zealand

'Lots of frost': NZ braces for sub-zero chill, possible 'heavy rain' before Matariki

'Lots of frost': NZ braces for sub-zero chill, possible 'heavy rain' before Matariki

16 Jun 08:21 AM

Much of the South Island is set to plunge below 0C tonight and tomorrow.

'Sharp instincts': $7.5m meth haul intercepted by Customs

'Sharp instincts': $7.5m meth haul intercepted by Customs

16 Jun 08:19 AM
Tribesmen's alleged 'hotbox' murder after gang member's unauthorised online shopping

Tribesmen's alleged 'hotbox' murder after gang member's unauthorised online shopping

16 Jun 07:30 AM
Foreign Minister Winston Peters speaks amid the Israel/Iran conflict

Foreign Minister Winston Peters speaks amid the Israel/Iran conflict

How one volunteer makes people feel seen
sponsored

How one volunteer makes people feel seen

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP