Asteroid ’2024 YR4′ unlikely to hit Earth in 2032, but why are we obsessed with doomsday scenarios? - The Front Page

A 'city killer' asteroid's chances of hitting Earth in 2032 have been downgraded. Image / Nasa

For centuries, humankind has been obsessed with doomsday scenarios.

Predictions of apocalyptic events have cropped up since the first millennium and have continued throughout the ages – from asteroids and nuclear war to aliens and the millennium bug.

The latest iteration is an asteroid, coined 2024 YR4, that scientists said has a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032.

It’s the highest impact probability Nasa has ever recorded for an object of this size or larger.

However, observations made of the asteroid on February 19-20 have further decreased its chance of Earth impact to 0.28%.

Stardome astronomer Josh Aoraki told The Front Page it’s a relatively small asteroid, about 50 to 100 metres wide.

“I will stress that this asteroid is not an extinction-level event. The one that wiped out the dinosaurs was about 10 kilometres across.

“In saying that, [it’s] big enough that it would cause damage if it were to impact near a populated area. The airburst potentially if it exploded within the atmosphere could be quite catastrophic. But you’ve also got to remember that, as to where it falls on Earth, most of the Earth is covered in oceans,” Aoraki said.

It’s not the first asteroid to make the news in recent memory.

In 2013, a house-sized meteor entered Earth’s atmosphere and exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia. Nasa reports the explosion released the energy equivalent of around 440,000 tonnes of TNT and generated a shock wave that blew out windows over 500 square kilometres.

“It broke windows and injured people. Miraculously, it didn’t kill anyone. But, the scary thing about this asteroid is it was only about 20 metres wide and we actually had no idea it was coming. It was just completely out of the blue,” Aoraki said.

“There was also a more famous event about 100 years ago – the Tunguska event – where a similar size asteroid to the one we’re talking about exploded over Siberia. There were very few people around, but it flattened millions and millions of trees in the area.

“It is a reminder that we are living in a time where we can detect these things. For the most part, we can predict them ahead of time and we do have technology to mitigate them.”

Despite the limited threat of it, news of the 2024 YR4 asteroid has sparked a social media and news obsession - and begs the question: Why are we so gripped by “end of the world” scenarios?

The word “doomscrolling” was chosen as New Zealand’s word of the year in 2020. It’s defined as reading news or social media excessively, especially when the news is negative.

Flinders University communications and media lecturer Dr Lisa Harrison told The Front Page it all started when marketers realised that clickbait would entice people to stay online.

“It’s not a very healthy habit to get into because it’s a very unconscious way of consuming media.

“Consuming negative media is like having a bad diet and can cause anxiety when we don’t keep it in check. Other things we need to think about are connecting with people in real life and face-to-face, and actually talking to your friends, family and co-workers about some of this content online,” she said.

Listen to the full episode to hear more about doomscrolling and why you shouldn’t be worried about this latest asteroid sighting.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.

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