Another poll surge unlikely, says Brash

National Party leader Don Brash begins his election-year strategy for survival at Ratana today where he will repeat his anti-separatism theme of his last Orewa speech ahead of tomorrow's tough welfare policy speech at Orewa.

At Orewa, he is expected to announce a policy of literacy and numeracy testing for the unemployed and a reduction in assistance to women who get pregnant on the domestic purposes benefit.

He dismissed a suggestion that he would be portrayed as "mean" by pursuing the hardline policy.

"What drives me is ensuring that all New Zealanders have the kind of opportunity in life that I had, and the risk we face is that in the next 10 or 20 years, that will not be the case."

He told the Herald yesterday he would have to traverse the Maori separatism theme at the annual Ratana celebration "otherwise people would think I was not willing to say to Ratana what I was willing to say to a non-Maori audience".

He would also caution Ratana that their relationship with Labour ran the risk of Maori not being taken as seriously as they should by other political parties.

He expected his reception to be "courteous but somewhat cool".

Dr Brash yesterday acknowledged the exposure his second Orewa speech as Opposition leader has received but he believed there was no expectation to repeat his party's poll surge after last year's speech.

"Any expectation that we can repeat last year's jump in the polls last time is quite unrealistic and we don't expect to do that.

"If the polls don't move or go down following the Orewa speech that certainly would be disappointing to us."

But he was not expecting pressure within caucus over his leadership should he fail to get any short-term boost in the polls.

"You're probably better to ask that of other people in the caucus but I don't sense any mood for changing the leader this close to an election at all," he said.

"It may well be, of course, that I am shielded from that discussion, but I don't sense any mood for change at all."

Pressure or not, this year is make or break for Dr Brash, whose party's lead over Labour in the wake of the Orewa speech shrivelled to a 20-point gap from Labour by the end of last year.

National has been out of Government for almost two terms and its caucus took a gamble 15 months ago that the former Reserve Bank Governor - but political novice - had the best chance of returning the party to power.

The polls supplied the evidence last year that that was possible.

Finance spokesman John Key said yesterday this was not the time to debate whether the party had made the right decision in electing Dr Brash as leader in 2003.

"This ain't a year to be mucking around with whether Don is the right leader or not ... there won't be any changing of horses in my view."

The welfare speech would be a good "springboard" from which to contest the general election.

"I don't think if we go up seven points we're a success and if we go up three, we're a failure. It's part of the overall agenda."

If National could get close and stay close to Labour, the election would be fought quite differently.

"At the moment they have quite a lot of room in the Budget and they will react very differently in my view if we are breathing down their neck. If you put enough pressure on them, they will eventually crack. They [Labour] are not quite as Teflon as everyone thinks they are."

The welfare speech is the third issue in a group of five key issues for the party identified by Dr Brash soon after winning the leadership 15 months into his parliamentary career.

* nzherald.co.nz will have coverage of Mr Brash's Ratana speech at 11.30am today