Rugby
A form analyst would argue the two semifinals in the Wairarapa-Bush Rugby Union's Tui Cup premier division rugby competition are over even before a ball has been kicked.
If past meetings this season are anything to go by, it's hard to argue against Greytown and Pioneer winning through to the following weekend's final.
Greytown is at home to East Coast and they have already run up 71 points against East Coast with only 12 in reply. Their Kapene Cup clash resulted in a crushing 37-12 victory and their Tui Cup preliminary round success was by 34 to 0.
Pioneer cannot boast wins of anywhere near that magnitude against semifinal rivals Eketahuna but both their encounters have also gone their way, 16-10 in the Kapene Cup and 24-17 in the Tui Cup preliminaries.
There are, however, a couple of good reasons why assessing the semifinals purely on past form could prove fruitless.
Firstly, finals rugby is seldom predictable. It is test of temperament as much as skill.
Secondly, the preparation of the two teams contesting each semifinal is as different as chalk and cheese. Greytown (through no fault of their own, it must be said) and Pioneer will be playing their first game for three weeks while East Coast and Eketahuna have had constant match play, culminating in their game at Eketahuna last Saturday when the home team ground out a narrow 9-7 win.
Enter the analysts again. Some would take the view the benefit of fresh legs and extra time to get over the niggling injuries which always crop up at this late stage of the club season will favour Greytown and Pioneer, others would place their faith in the rigours of regular competition working to the advantage of East Coast and Eketahuna,
In the wily Ritchie Robertson East Coast have a head coach who took Greytown to the Tui Cup title last season and if anybody can plot a formula which turns the tide against his old side it would be him. Mention East Coast and you tend to think of extravagant back play but with the Greytown rearguard operating with such efficiency Robertson might look to his forwards to call the tune on Saturday.
And in Joe Feast, Wiremu Grace, Tom Bowie and Robert O'Neale he has a nucleus of players who would relish that challenge.
Eketahuna fans won't be reading too much into past results either.
They know their side has a pack as rugged and uncompromising as any in the competition and an under-rated first-five in Tom Meuli. The pace and enterprise of the Pioneer backs will worry them but they will be backing their forwards (think Johan van Vliet, Joss Tua-Davidson, Dan Griffin) and a vocal home crowd to give them the edge. All in all then, anybody who thinks these Tui Cup semifinals are a done deal simply because the form book points that way could well be in for a shock when the results are posted late Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, teams seeded fifth to eighth at the end of the Tui Cup preliminary rounds will play off in the Hodder Steffert Cup plate semifinals on Saturday with Gladstone at home to Marist and Carterton likewise to Bush Sports. The Ryan Cup senior reserves semifinals are Masterton Red Star v Greytown at a Masterton venue still to be confirmed and Tuhirangi v Martinborough at Tuhirangi.