Never say never in politics. So Act's Rodney Hide can still hope. But the pointers are grim.
The chart measures the polling average at half-monthly intervals before this year's election and the previous three elections.
In 1999 and 2002, Act was around 5 per cent throughout the lead-up months and
then climbed comfortably clear of the threshold.
But in those two elections National was weak and National-leaning voters reckoned National needed Act as a potential support partner - or, particularly in 2002, had despaired of National.
The nearest parallel with Hide's current predicament is 1996, when Act came off a low base three months out to 6.1 per cent on election day. But by this time in 1996 Act was already climbing. In mid-late July this year, two months out from September 17, Act was falling. Its four-poll average then was 1.3 per cent.
There are other important differences with 1996. MMP was new. Then leader Richard Prebble was an instinctive and innovative campaigner, and some National-leaning voters figured they had to get Act up to 5 per cent for a support partner. National itself gave a wink and a nod to that - until near the election when it feared Act was siphoning off too many.
Now Act is a well-worn idea. Don Brash in any case has been claimed by Act as its "tenth MP". Prebble has gone, and Hide is better known for scandals than promoting economic ideals. National has won back credibility among its core voters, and there is a widespread view in the party that it is better off without Act.
Unless Act's ratings climb, the Herald poll of polls will leave Act out of any government configuration calculations. That leaves New Zealand First, United Future and Jim Anderton in the picture because they will almost certainly win electorate seats plus the Greens, whose average is above the 5 per cent threshold.
* Each week until the election the Herald is examining an aspect of the poll of polls. The average at any point is of the four most recently published polls from among the Herald DigiPoll, Colmar Brunton (TV1), UMR (National Business Review), TNS (TV3) and BRC (Sunday Star-Times). Each point represents a different combination of four of the five polls.
