KEY POINTS:
Warmer, wetter, conditions continue to affect northern New Zealand and this weekend will be no different.
A low in the Tasman Sea is pulling down saturated air from the sub-tropics and that means low cloud, drizzle, rain and much higher temperatures at night. Overnight lows through the
past couple of nights have been significantly warmer than last week - and over the next couple of nights they could be as much as 15 degrees warmer in some centres than a week ago.
Cities such as Auckland, Tauranga and Whangarei are also expected to have lows around 12 to 14 degrees. Other North Island centres will enjoy lows in or near double digits right through until Sunday.
But we're still smack bang in the middle of winter and a few of the geeky websites I look at show some pretty fierce storms currently circling Antarctica. Temperatures at Scott Base are around -18 degrees at the moment, which is pretty mild considering they haven't seen the sun for a couple of months! But all that freezing air is circling the Continent and plenty of it is travelling in the Southern Ocean, just south of New Zealand.
It's simply a matter of time before high air pressure over New Zealand gives way and lets some of that cold air shift north. At this stage I'm thinking early next week we could see another cold snap over the country - it shouldn't be anything like we saw a few weeks ago but it will certainly bring a sharp drop in temperatures again. It will flush the wet, humid, air from our valleys and leave colder drier air for many - so in the South Island that will mean no more fog but a return to frosts.
Snow fall will most likely be in higher places but a cold southerly should blanket the country so even those in the winter-less north will feel - well - winter.
If all of this news is depressing you, fear not! I've been thrilled with the feedback I've had from this blog and one of the emails I received the other day was from a man named David who lives in Kingston, Ontario in Canada. (and I'd love to hear from other international - and Kiwi - readers too, just use the Contact Us button at www.weatherwatch.co.nz ). Of course it's the middle of summer in Canada and they've been enjoying a relatively mild and calm one this year. Here I was thinking how much they must be enjoying Summer when I read this line from David's email: "While you have the warmer seasons to look forward to, it is the approaching colder ones that are entering our minds up here". So for those of you who don't enjoy winter's coldness, do the opposite of David and think that we're now on the downhill slope to Summer!
I've done a few calculations and summer is slowly creeping up on us. The sun is spending more and more time in our hemisphere.
Extra daylight over New Zealand since the shortest day in June
Auckland - extra 17 minutes
Wellington - an extra 22 minutes
Christchurch - extra 26 minutes
Invercargill - 27 minutes more daylight
And the days will get longer, faster, over the coming weeks!
Philip Duncan
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.
Pictured above: The Bay of Plenty's Motuhora Island off Whakatane is bathed in golden light as the sun sinks in the west. Photo / Alan Gibson