National Party leader Todd Muller and deputy Nikki Kaye, who will play a prominent role in the election. Photo / Hagen Hopkins
In 100 days, voters will go to the polling booths and decide whether to keep Labour at the helm or whether to install a new National Party Government – restricting Labour to just one term.
The fates of the smaller parties – New Zealand First, the Greens – are on the line as both struggle to keep their heads comfortable above 5 per cent.
The start of level 1 at midnight Monday also marked the start of a campaign. Both parties suspended campaigning when lockdown began but it begins in earnest now.
That shift will also draw the line between the focus on the health response to Covid-19 – the effort to stamp it out – and the economic response as the country contends with the ongoing fallout from the pandemic in terms of both New Zealand's lockdown and the lockdowns overseas.
That will also see the political consensus that has operated during the Covid-19 lockdowns end abruptly.
The Prime Minister has so far been rewarded handsomely, with polls putting Labour in the mid 50s and Ardern in the mid 60s as preferred PM.
National, however, has had a change in jockey to Muller just as the home straight loomed – and a change in the campaign chair from Paula Bennett to Gerry Brownlee.
It has a lot of ground to make up.
Claire Trevett spoke to the campaign chairs of Labour and National, Megan Woods and Gerry Brownlee.
The leaders: Jacinda Ardern v Todd Muller
It would be an understatement to say this seems to be a bit of a mismatch.
In terms of current profile and power, it is akin to Phar Lap taking on the stable donkey.
At the moment, Ardern is at the top of her game and seems untouchable.
By comparison, Muller was not widely known before taking over the leadership and had a short track record as an MP, having come to Parliament at the tail end of the National Government in 2014.
This will be reflected in the campaigns: Labour's campaign will be wall-to-wall Ardern - but expect to also see a bit of Finance Minister Grant Robertson.
National's campaign will feature Muller prominently – but his higher-profile deputy, Nikki Kaye, will also be a constant presence.
It is understood the party's hoardings feature both of them.
Both Woods and Brownlee pointed to the "presidential" style of elections as something that had long been the case, especially under MMP when the party vote took priority over the electorate vote.
Woods said Labour's campaign would focus on the Government's record and what it could do in the future, but it was inevitable Ardern would take a very prominent role.
"What they will see in Jacinda is someone they know is good in a crisis, I don't think we've had a PM who has had to face as many crises as she has in their time as Prime Minister. She has been proven under the toughest circumstances any leader has had to deal with in decades – arguably ever."
Brownlee said the Jacinda factor could be countered by highlighting what the Government had actually delivered.
"I concede the popularity, but there is a difference between being popular and able to deliver popular messages, and being able to deliver on what is promised in those messages," he said.
"There's no question she's an extremely gifted communicator and the Government is very good at announcements. It is on delivery that they fall short."
He said National was "very proud" of its new leader "but there will be a focus on the wider team as well".
He said while Ardern was undoubtedly popular, those ministers behind her were not as competent.
Muller is set to campaign on National's past form – the National Party's governance in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Muller himself was a backbencher for the last term, so other faces will be used to remind people of it – expect to see a lot of Kaye, especially in Auckland, and Judith Collins as well as Amy Adams.
Woods said the leadership change highlighted that National was no longer the party of Key and English.
She did not think National's leadership change would impact on Labour or the campaign it was going to run.
"In many ways the Opposition is irrelevant to the positive campaigns we want to put forward to the electorate.
"Of course, a change in leader means National has to go through a rebuilding phase and that is difficult. We know that well – it takes time and energy.
"This is not the party of Key and English any more and they need to rebuild from that."
THE POLICY:
One policy area alone will dominate this campaign, even more than usual: The Covid-19 economy.
Labour will drive home the spending plans to try to stimulate the economy and shore up businesses and jobs – the $50 billion spending programme.
National will focus on its own plans to do the same – but will also hammer home the debt required to get there, and who is best placed to keep that under control.
Woods says Labour's campaign had been focused on promoting the direction Labour was taking – "but where the conversation will shift to is how we rebuild after Covid."
National will be trying to puncture that. Brownlee said the PM had done a very good job of leading the health response to Covid-19.
"And nobody can take that away. But we see that as being very much a solo effort, with the support of Grant Robertson. So the question still remains about the capacity of the Government to deliver in difficult times, economically.
"[Voters] will not ignore the perils of a declining economy, the uncertainty of work and income and will be attuned to the need to have a clear ability to deliver on an economic programme that is designed to get us out of a very big hole."
THE POLLS:
The two public polls last month put Labour in the mid 50s and National down around 30 per cent.
Those figures carry risks for both parties.
In Labour's case, the risk is it results in supporter complacency.
For National, the risk is its supporters write it off and look to other parties such as NZ First to try to stop Labour getting a majority or forming a Government with the Greens alone.
Brownlee is confident those polls will close up, pointing to the speed and size of the changes in the polls – National had dropped from the mid 40s to 30 over just two months.
Woods also said she expected the polls to close up as, pointing to the traditional "bump" in the polls for Governments after a crisis.
"We are not getting all complacent. We know the race will narrow. History will tell you there will be a narrowing, so we are prepared for that and have to make sure we keep the momentum going."
AUCKLAND
The campaign chairs of both parties are Christchurch based.
Both Woods and Brownlee acknowledge Auckland is an important part of the campaign, due to its population.
Asked how well he understands the city or if he is that fond of it as a parochial Cantabrian, Brownlee said the parochialism in New Zealand was not that deep, beyond sport and banter.
"There will be regional issues, but the issues in Auckland are not that different to the rest of the country." He said Muller would spend a lot of time in Auckland and Kaye knew Auckland very well.
In Labour's case, leader Jacinda Ardern is in Auckland. Woods said she had spent time in Auckland, especially in her housing portfolio.
"I love all of New Zealand, and in terms of Auckland in particular I don't begrudge us giving them the gift of Dan Carter at all."
The impact of Covid-19 on the campaign:
The drop to level 1 has at least allowed the political parties to get on with planning something of a campaign as normal after setting up contingency plans for "mass gatherings" such as party conferences and campaign launches.
But those plans will still need to be kept on standby in case of a further outbreak.
The Covid-19 lockdowns have delayed and hampered both campaigns.
Policies have had to be overhauled as the focus shifted to Covid-19 - forcing both parties to give up some "nice to haves" and replace them with ideas that will still attract the voters.
Labour's election-year Congress at the end of June will still be held by Zoom with delegates: The party decided it was not worth the risk of booking venues and flights in case there were still restrictions on mass gatherings. However, Ardern will do a speech with an audience on the Sunday.
Both parties are well along with selecting their electorate candidates, reporting only three or four left to select.
Neither has yet done its list rankings. Labour's list will be worked out this weekend and announced next week some time.
National has barely started – the regional conferences at which the regional preferences are decided were cancelled because of the lockdown. That must be done before the board can consider the final list.
Candidates would normally have been door knocking from weeks ago – but the shift to level 1 does at least mean the door knocking, and selfies, can begin again.
* Tomorrow, a look at the campaigns of NZ First, the Green Party and Act.
Much of the South Island is set to plunge below 0C tonight and tomorrow.