Niwa outlook: Cold snaps expected for Palmerston North in early August

Palmerston North near the intersection of Main and Princess Streets. Photo / Google Street View

Palmerston North residents are in for a bout of cold weather, according to Niwa’s August – October seasonal outlook.

The report predicts a cold snap and likely frosts for early August in the Central North Island region, which includes Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū, Horowhenua and Wellington.

The colder-than-average start to the month is due to a climate driver in the stratosphere, affecting weather patterns during August in the summer hemisphere.

Niwa’s principal scientist of forecasting and media, Chris Brandolino, said while Palmerston North can expect a colder start to the month, it will get warmer after the first week.

“For the next three months, the temperature is expected to be average or above average for that area.”

He said some frost could be expected but daytime temperatures would be higher than normal. In terms of rainfall, Palmy can expect a small amount next weekend.

“Regardless, it’s going to be a pretty dry start to August.”

For the second half of August, about the third or fourth week, more rainfall and unsettled weather is predicted.

“As we go on to September and October, we believe the rainfall will be normal. While August starts out dry, it is expected over the whole three-month period that the rainfall will be at normal range.”

While Niwa doesn’t specifically report on snowfall trends, Brandolino said that given the lack of moisture and cold temperatures, people may have to wait a bit longer for Ruapehu to have a decent snowfall.

“In terms of snow, you need moisture and temperature and that’s not expected for the start of August. I can say that an abundant snowfall doesn’t look promising.”

He encouraged people – especially farmers and agricultural workers – to regularly check rainfall trends in the region using Niwa’s Drought Forecast.

“Niwa has this great tool that helps us predict rainfall and expected dryness. It’s free for anyone to check at any time and gets updated daily.”

To check out that forecast, visit: https://shiny.niwa.co.nz/drought-forecast/