Brent Barrett's Home Planet: How hot our future will be is up to us

The evidence of our hot climate future is everywhere. More floods. More drought. Hotter oceans. Wilder fires. Photo / George Heard

OPINION:

So, how's your holiday season looking? I hope you've lined up good times with friends and family, a bit of gift giving, yummy food, and a visit to wherever your happy place is. In short, the good things in life.

It's amazing how happy holiday moments are built on such simple stories. Like Santa Claus. While pure myth, Santa's journey animates our choices and actions. Every year we gather and share gifts. It's a tall tale that connects us, and creates real joy and happiness. A yearly reminder of the power in a good story.

Santa isn't the only potent story we tell. Here's three we often hear about a hot planet. First, a hot planet is something we can prevent. Second, a hot planet is only a future problem. Third, a hot planet isn't a big problem. Like the tale behind Santa, these three are not true. But they're powerful.

Facing a hot future isn't pleasant. I get that. It's a tough truth to hear, especially for those who've spent decades trying to avert the climate crisis, and for those looking children in the eye.

But when we're more than a century past the first warnings about a hot planet, generations past the first serious efforts to cut emissions, and seeing more and more climate disruption emerging, it's worth acknowledging the harsh reality. It's getting hotter. As a team of 8 billion, we're rushing into a hot climate future.

The evidence is everywhere. More floods. More drought. Hotter oceans. Wilder fires. Each summer hotter than average. Each year hotter than average. Each decade hotter than average. And not only hotter than average, but often the hottest in civilised history.

Which tells us something. The climate crisis isn't a tomorrow thing. It's a now thing. Like it or not, despite repeated warnings and clear solutions, we've failed to steer clear of it. In fact, we've struck it head on. The 20s are the next chapter of the increasingly rough ride into our hot future.

Far from being a reason for despair and paralysis, owning up to the realities of our climate crisis is a powerful motivator. Why? Because the future is still in our hands. How rough our hot future gets will be largely determined by our answer to one simple question: how much fossil fuel will we dig, pump and burn?

That's what makes the Climate Change Commission work so important. It's why every public, business and household budget needs to be a climate budget. It's why Horizons' new Climate Action Joint Committee needs to do great things, quickly.

At a practical level, it's why we need a rising price on emissions. Send the price up until emissions come down. It's why we need more city-centre living, less sprawl eating up farms. It's why we need ambitious transport solutions. Not to avoid or stop the climate crisis, but to soften the blow. To avoid the worst versions of our hot future.

There's a lot that needs achieving, and soon. We need to build resilience in our whānau, communities and local systems, including stronger democracy. As we map our way forward, the question is clear: does a proposed action build resilience and cut emissions? The wise choice is to take actions that do both. Easier said than done, I know. But it starts with telling the truth, even when it's not what we want to hear.

You may have found this hard to read. Or a breath of fresh air. It was both for me, but at least it's eyes open. The future is hot. How hot is up to us.

• Brent Barrett is an environmental advocate, city councillor and scientist. The views expressed here are his own.