Prince Andrew, Duke of York attends day eleven of the Wimbledon Tennis Championships at Wimbledon on July 10, 2015 in London, England. Photo / Getty Images
Opinion:
Back in the day, a monarch had plenty of nifty options for how to deal with an errant sibling. Exile to the Continent was always a popular choice (e.g. King George VI and the Duke and Duchess of Windsor) while the Tower of London was a recurring favourite. (Queen Mary I imprisoned her half-sister Princess Elizabeth while Richard of Gloucester shoved his brother's young sons in there the minute the king died, only for the young boys to never be seen again.)
The British Crown also has an unfortunate track record when it comes to a spot of fratricide. (William II died after being shot in the back with many claiming his brother, who became Henry I, was responsible for ordering the killing, while George Plantagenet, Duke of Clarence was rumoured to have been drowned in a huge vat of wine after conspiring against his brother Edward IV.)
I wonder if Prince Charles ever looks back fondly at those times? Because, let's be honest, having the power to shunt his younger brother and perpetual headache Prince Andrew off to some isolated schloss in Bavaria probably sounds pretty damn tempting right now.
For the better part of the last two and a half years, when the royal family wasn't dealing with whatever pyrotechnic TV complaining Harry and Meghan, Duke and Duchess of Sussex were up to, they have been contending with the human equivalent of the Exxon Valdez aka Andrew and the perpetual, rolling publicity disaster he has become.
In 2019, his friendship with convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein was thrust back into the spotlight when the financier was arrested on sex trafficking charges. Epstein's suicide in August of that year, followed by Andrew's epically ham-handed attempt to 'deal' with the situation by speaking to the BBC, resulted in the most precipitous royal fall-from-grace since Harold II managed to lose England to the Normans.
Earlier this year, Andrew had to pay Epstein sex trafficking victim Virginia Giuffre a reported $21.5 million to settle her civil sex abuse lawsuit in New York. (The Duke has always denied her claims.)
There is not a single, solitary way you can spin that last paragraph to make it sound even a smidgen less horrendously damaging to the monarchy than it is.
And it is Charles who is going to have too clean up this Andrew mess.
Because even now, even after the Queen and Charles reportedly had to find the tens of millions to pay Ms Giuffre, Andrew's money (the source of which has never been even partially explained) being tied up in his $32 million Swiss ski chalet, Her Majesty seems more than willing to let Andrew get away with PR murder time and again.
Look no further than in late March when the now 96-year-old sovereign gave him a starring role in the service of Thanksgiving for Prince Philip in a spectacularly misguided show of public support.
If there was one thing that Abbey moment proved, it is that while the Queen remains on the throne, Andrew is golden. Sure, he no longer has any official role, having been stripped of his honorary military titles and his official patronages by his mumsy in January, nor has he left British soil since Epstein's arrest. Yes, his world might have dramatically shrunk but he still gets to spend his days swanning around his freebie 31-room Georgian pile, Royal Lodge, in Windsor, which comes fully staffed and on 98-acres of manicured grounds.
For now, that is.
Because look a tad into the future, just peer a bit further down the road and the picture for the disgraced duke starts to look decidedly less rosy. Think (relative) penury, being booted out of his massive house and being truly sidelined from royal life.
For Andrew, the real pain might not have even started.
The reason for all of this lies in the 14th century creation, the vastly wealthy estate called the Duchy of Lancaster which later Edward IV, he of the wine-barrel-brother-drowning, decided should belong solely to whoever was the monarch.
Today, the Duchy is worth more than $1 billion and generated $39 million in revenue last year, making it a tidy earner for the Queen. It is out of this money that the Queen keeps her children (and a few extended relatives like the Kents and Gloucesters) fed, watered and in generous Berry Bros. & Rudd wine orders. (After a hard day of plaque unveiling, a decent bottle of claret seems like reasonable recompense no?)
It is from this income that Her Majesty used to find the $437,000 allowance she previously gave Andrew, technically to help him undertake official duties.
How exactly he is supporting himself these days is a bit of a mystery, but we can make some educated guesses because while he might not have a job, a role, any remaining dignity or anything to do all day but aimlessly practise his putting, the 62-year-old seems to be managing money-wise. (He still has that hideous green Bentley with its personalised 'DOY' number plate.)
While he may no longer have that official Buckingham Palace office (it's just him and all the Post-It notes he managed to nick on the way out) Her Majesty is most likely still bankrolling him. (He also receives a naval pension of about $35,000.) And it is a pretty reasonable bet that cash is coming from the Lancaster kitty.
When Charles accedes, the Duchy of Lancaster will fall entirely under his control as will the handing out of the 140 plus grace and favour houses across the UK which belong to the Crown. Which is to say, in the coming years, all the fringe benefits which Andrew currently enjoys are about to come exclusively under the control of his brother.
Uh oh …
For his entire life, the Duke of York has enjoyed his mother's perpetual, indefatigable indulgence but those days are numbered. The reality that he will face when his brother takes the reins could be starkly different.
Charles and Andrew have never been close as brothers given their 12 year age difference and their completely opposing personalities and interests. (The Prince of Wales, as far as I know, has never hung out with a Libyan gun-runner, gone goose hunting with a dictator or been photographed lolling about on a yacht surrounded by a veritable harem of topless, much younger women.)
In recent years the princes have reportedly clashed over Charles' plan for a much leaner, streamlined royal family, one with the Yorks shoved to the margins, having reportedly infuriated Andrew. (In 2016, the Express reported that the Prince of Wales has blocked an attempt by his younger brother to nab taxpayer-funded official roles for his daughters Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie and for them to be upgraded to Kensington Palace digs from their "small" St James Palace apartments.)
More recently, Charles reportedly played a role in Andrew's ousting from official royal duties, both in 2019 and then this final defrocking this year.
There is every chance Charles could dramatically reduce his brother's Lancaster-derived allowance and boot him out of Royal Lodge for somewhere less stately and far away from the monarchy powerbase in Windsor.
On the housing front, it is looking increasingly likely that William and Kate, Duke and Duchess of Cambridge will move, at least part-time, to Windsor this year. One of the properties that has been mooted as a possible country home for them is, you guessed it, Royal Lodge.
There is no shiner jewel in Andrew's crown than Royal Lodge.
To me, the symbolism of Andrew losing the massive estate he enjoys, essentially for free, for it to be handed over to the adored, ostensibly near-perfect Cambridges, would be absolutely delicious.
For more than 50 years, the Grade II historic home belonged to the Queen Mother. (Imagine how much gin has been spilt on the priceless Aubusson carpets and how many Ladbrokes betting slips the maids are still finding down the back of the silk sofas.)
When she passed away, Andrew was promptly given the mansion, moving out of his monstrosity Sunninghill Park, freeing him up to sell the massive and ugly home that he and his ex-wife Sarah, Duchess of York had built in the 80s.
(It might have taken more than five years to sell but luckily the son-in-law of Andrew's goosehunting dictator chum so wanted the crumbling property that they paid $5.2 million over the asking price! What luck!)
Her Majesty might be unwilling to make Andrew face the ignominy of being downgraded to some lesser grace-and-favour home but Charles is a different cup of tea entirely.
For much of the last 20 years, it has not only been Andrew but also the perennially broke Fergie who has called Royal Lodge home.
While the Queen is said to have a soft spot for her former daughter-in-law, there is reportedly no love lost between Charles and the duchess.
If Charles should give the Yorks the boot from Royal Lodge, it would therefore be something of a two-for-one.
For Andrew, being chucked out by his brother and having his allowance cut would be abjectly humiliating and would be a serious blow for his (hugely over inflated) ego.
Is there a single person – aside from Fergie, their daughters and his paid team of lawyers and spin doctors — who would lose a wink of sleep at the thought of Andrew being taken down a peg or two?
I'd argue that Andrew being forced to pay a real price for his appalling choices and friendship with Epstein would be met with collective applause, all with the added benefit of making King Charles III look like a firm, decisive leader attuned to public sentiment.
Charles might have inched his way back into positive territory in terms of public approval but he must be all too aware of the very lukewarm reception he faces from his subjects when he becomes King. That is why, a sure-fire PR win by, say, clipping Andrew's financial wings would make for a particularly attractive prospect.
We are in a strange moment in the royal world, on the precipice of once-in-a-century change. There will be a new world order when that happens and there are some members of the house of Windsor who are poised to come out on top and others who face a much colder future.
So enjoy Royal Lodge and bossing about the gardeners while you can, Andrew. You know what they say, you don't know what till it's gone and you've been forcibly relocated to rural Yorkshire.
Daniela Elser is a royal expert and a writer with more than 15 years experience working with a number of Australia's leading media titles.
Diogo Riedi's grandmother taught him to make bread in a wood-fired oven in Brazil.