Convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell. Photo / Getty Images
OPINION:
There is one figure that has cropped up in nearly every report about Prince Andrew settling his civil sex abuse case: 99 per cent. That's the percentage of civil cases that never reach the trial stage and are instead settled over a boardroom table and with money changing hands.
Based on that statistic, this very sorry saga was not going to end in a dramatic courtroom showdown in New York but was destined to be settled in some lawyer's backroom.
We were never going to get the Law & Order-style denouement that the drama-loving among us might have craved. (Moi? Never.)
That all made perfect sense until the Daily Mail got their hands on a very brief email exchange overnight, one dating back seven years. which casts Prince Andrew's capitulation in a startling new light.
The question now is, did Prince Andrew settle for a reported $22.7 million because a sex trafficker and old friend Ghislaine Maxwell threw him under the bus? Were two very brief sentences, seemingly hastily typed out years ago by the former socialite turned prison inmate, the reason that the Duke of York agreed to forgo his day in court and agree to a truly spectacular U-turn?
This whole situation hinges on that notorious photo, taken in 2001, showing the Duke of York with his arm around the then 17-year-old Virginia Guiffre with Maxwell standing behind them. The shot was allegedly taken by sex offender Jeffrey Epstein at Maxwell's Belgravia, London, home.
In her lawsuit filed last year, Guiffre alleged that after the photo was taken she was sexually assaulted by Prince Andrew, the first of three encounters during which she claims the Queen's son abused her. The Duke has always strenuously denied her claims and this week's settlement includes no admission of guilt.
That simple shot, taken on a cheap Kodak camera given to Guiffre by Epstein, has played a pivotal part in Prince Andrew's dramatic downfall, seemingly providing incontrovertible proof that he had met Guiffre.
The royal, however, has long questioned the authenticity of the shot.
During his November 2019 Newsnight interview, which triggered his swift and brutal ex-communication from royal life, Prince Andrew cast doubt on the photo, telling journalist Emily Maitlis: "From the investigations that we've done, you can't prove whether or not that photograph is faked or not because it is a photograph of a photograph of a photograph … Nobody can prove whether or not that photograph has been doctored, but I don't recollect that photograph ever being taken."
Court documents filed in January by Prince Andrew's legal team signalled that they would continue to dispute the veracity of the image. This one simple photo could have been the linchpin in this case, with the Mail reporting that "The duke's lawyers had lined up an image expert to cast doubt on the veracity of the photo."
But here's the thing: There are only four people who know the truth about the photo – Guiffre, Andrew, Maxwell and Epstein.
And the emails published by the Daily Mail show that Maxwell herself believed the shot was real.
On December 30, 2014, Guiffre alleged in a legal filing that while she was being trafficked by Epstein she was required "to have sexual relations with (Alan) Dershowitz" on numerous occasions while she was a minor in Florida, New York, New Mexico and the US Virgin Islands. Her court filing also alleged that "Dershowitz was an eyewitness to the sexual abuse of many other minors by Epstein and several of Epstein's co-conspirators."
The famed lawyer immediately denied the claims - Guiffre and Dershowitz are still involved in legal proceedings in regards to a counterclaim to a defamation suit.
Less than two weeks after the sensational allegations were raised, at 3.14 pm on January 10, 2015, Dershowitz wrote: "Dear G. Do you know whether the photo of Andrew and Virginia is real? You are in the background."
Eleven minutes later, Maxwell replied: "It looks real. I think it is."
So, would her email have provided corroboration of Guiffre's claims - which could have proved damning for Prince Andrew? If those two emails had found their way into evidence, would this have dramatically undermined the duke's strategy?
We know that Dershowitz was not the only friend from Epstein's orbit whose fears Maxwell was assuaging at the time.
In 2019, the BBC's Panorama revealed that on January 3, 2015, Prince Andrew had emailed Maxwell asking: "Let me know when we can talk. Got some specific questions to ask you about Virginia Roberts."
She responded: "Have some info. Call me when you have a moment."
The royal's relationship with Maxwell has come under renewed scrutiny of late, with a documentary last month alleging that the pair had a romantic relationship.
Former royal protection officer Paul Page (who was convicted of fraud) said that "From the way she was allowed to enter and exit the palace at will, we suspected that she may have had an intimate relationship with Prince Andrew. She kept coming in and out, in and out."
Then, only this weekend, the Telegraph printed a 2002 photo showing Maxwell inside Buckingham Palace with Prince Andrew, while he was giving former US President Bill Clinton a tour of his mother's spectacular home.
A member of that tour group said: "Ghislaine Maxwell was the one who led us into Buckingham Palace. We walked in the main gates and Ghislaine showed us where we needed to be. She knew her way around this area of the palace. Ghislaine was described to me [as] an ex-girlfriend of Prince Andrew's."
Of Prince Andrew and Maxwell, the same source said: "They clearly knew each other very well. She was very friendly and cheery."
Romantic or not, that closeness could have made Maxwell's confirmation of the photo's credibility highly damaging to Prince Andrew.
While Maxwell had reportedly said she would appear as a defence witness for Prince Andrew if she had won her own case (instead she was convicted last year on five charges and now faces up to 40 years in prison), the converse could also have been true.
Could Maxwell's knowledge about the infamous photo have swung the pendulum towards settlement?
What is abundantly clear is that the consequences of that quick snap, taken more than 20 years ago, are still today reverberating painfully for Prince Andrew – and his mother's chequebook.
• Daniela Elser is a royal expert and a writer with more than 15 years of experience working with a number of Australia's leading media titles.
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