American TV networks cannot afford to call US election wrong

8.00pm - By ANDREW BUMCONBE

When the Washington Redskins lose their last game before a presidential election, the incumbent party is ousted, the Democrats reminded us after the football team's defeat to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. The weather forecast for some swing states in the Midwest is wet. Rain means low turn-out and low turn-out means a win for George Bush.

So much for a scientific means of predicting the outcome tonight of what is the tightest American election in modern times.

In a year when hunger is more intense than ever for even the slightest hint of who might finally prevail, the pool of reliable information is frustratingly paltry.

Everyone obsessively reads the daily tracking polls, but no one believes they are telling the whole story. So we just have to wait. Wait for how long, though?

In theory, the first television projections could come by 2pm on Wednesday (NZ time) or 8pm eastern time on Tuesday, even while voting in the western states continues. In reality, the country may have to wait longer.

On the hot-seat will be the television networks, who have ditched the Voter News Service, which in elections past provided them with exit polling information to help make those first projections.

The VNS was killed off by the multiple flaws exposed in the system last time, which created so much election night confusion from Florida. The service has been replaced by a more sophisticated operation known as the National Election Pool.

Tom Brokaw, the long-time anchor of NBC News, who will retire when the election is over, says: "We can't risk getting it wrong a second time in a row. That's why we reformed the system and why we'll take a deep breath."

He added: "Four years ago ... it was 'Florida, Florida, Florida'. This year it will be 'journalism, journalism, journalism'."

The television networks have added layers to their own vote-count desks, with analysts and reporters filtering numbers and searching for possible anomalies, especially if legal challenges or counting problems start to pop-up.

Sheldon Gawiser, who is director of elections at NBC, explained: "We'll be able to look at the data and decide whether we can make a projection."

In the early hours of election night, every network will overlay their coverage with on-screen health warnings: what we are telling you are estimates and informed guess work, not the real thing.

"I think everyone rightfully learned a lot of lessons four years ago," said David Bohrmann, the Washington bureau chief for CNN.

"You've learned that you don't have 100 per cent confidence in anything."

- INDEPENDENT