High-profile Labour MP John Tamihere looks set to be ousted at next week's election, according to a new poll.
The future seems equally uncertain for the Maori seats, with polling showing voters are divided on whether they should be abolished.
The Weekend Herald understands Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples hastaken a commanding lead in the Tamaki Makaurau seat in a Marae-DigiPoll due out today.
A Sharples win would end Mr Tamihere's once-promising political career. He and Tainui MP Nanaia Mahuta are the only members of Labour's Maori caucus not on the party list. Mr Tamihere holds the seat with a 9444-vote majority.
The poll reverses a trend that had Mr Tamihere closing on a once-commanding lead by Dr Sharples registered since polls were taken for the electorate in March.
Just last week Mr Tamihere was within 6 percentage points in a Maori television TNS-poll - almost within the poll's 5.2 per cent margin of error.
But he has not led in any of the five polls carried out in the Auckland-based seat since March.
The poll continues a decline echoed in the Tai Tokerau seat, held by Mr Tamihere's Labour colleague Dover Samuels. A Maori Television TNS-poll this week showed Mr Samuels trailing the Maori Party's Hone Harawira by 29 percentage points. A similar margin is found by a Marae-DigiPoll also due out today.
Speaking yesterday, Mr Tamihere said he was surprised by the poll, which conflicted with phone surveys and talk he was hearing on the street.
Dr Sharples said he was "chuffed" by the result.
Meanwhile, a Herald-DigiPoll carried out this week found opinion divided on retaining the Maori seats.
Of the 801 voters polled between September 1 and 7, 45.2 per cent wanted them abolished, 45.9 per cent wanted them kept, and 8.9 per cent were unsure.
A sizeable 78.8 per cent of those polled wanted all New Zealanders to decide what happened to the seats, 17.2 per cent believed Maori should decide, and 4 per cent did not know.
