Matt McCarten: Key scrambles to clean up Supercity messes

Do you just get the sense that the wheels are starting to come off the Government's Supercity strategy? Last week a series of ad hoc changes to National's original plans indicated panic was starting to creep in.

Regional council chairman Mike Lee, a possible mayoral candidate, pointed out that National and Labour's insistence on a few large community boards would make the new city unwieldy, undemocratic and certainly not local. He also exposed a secret plan of moving the new northern boundary to divide Rodney in two. The Government got flustered.

After the public relations debacle over Maori representation the week before last, John Key obviously felt he needed to act fast and take control of the agenda. National MP Tau Henare's revelation that Rodney Hide had threatened to resign as Local Government Minister if Key supported a compromise over Maori representation, and Hide's refusal to enter any accommodation, forced Key to shaft his Maori coalition partner - even before the Parliamentary select committee dealing with the matter reported back. The fallout was a disaster for all three Government parties. Labour made a telling point: that a 1 per cent party now determined the role of Maori, forcing Key to work overtime to placate his tangata whenua partners.

This messy affair won't split the coalition but the Maori Party received a realpolitik lesson. Despite the fact that public support for Maori seats is growing and is receiving increasing institutional support, the other coalition parties would rather shaft the Maori Party than upset their core redneck constituency.

Hide and his party should expect a lift in the polls given many New Zealanders will no doubt see his stand as one of principle. On the other hand, Hide will be seen as only getting his way by blackmail and will have lost Key's trust to shepherd in the Supercity legislation.

No prime minister likes to seen as being blackmailed by a junior partner.

It's no surprise, therefore, that Key announced the end to the proposal, supported by Act, to have "at-large councillors" on the new council. Key's arbitrary dismissal of Act's Private Member's Bill on repealing the smacking laws, in spite of the overwhelming referendum vote, clearly puts Act in its place. I predict a more distant relationship between Key and Hide in coming months.

The drama over the Supercity is in contrast to what appeared to be fait accompli earlier this year. Then, things were going swimmingly well for those of the corporate sector, hard-right political persuasion. One of their most reliable sons, Hide, was in charge of the whole thing and another favourite, John Banks, was certain to win the new mayoralty with extraordinary new powers to control the agenda and appoint fellow travellers to powerful committee chairs.

Clearly the centre-right has over-reached and Aucklanders are starting to wake up to an agenda they don't quite trust. Labour MP Phil Twyford's campaign around his Private Member's Bill to force the new council to hold a referendum before it could sell any public assets was never a runner. But he did manage to get the asset sales up on the political agenda. With just about every Aucklander opposed to selling off the family silver, Twyford must have been overjoyed when Hide supported Auckland's assets going under the auctioneer's hammer.

John Banks, fairly or unfairly, is taking the hit for the Government's mishandling of the situation and the implied asset sales association. A recent poll would have been a shock: it showed Banks couldn't get above the 40 per cent mark for his mayoral campaign.

Whilst Banks is probably unbeatable in the present Auckland city, he hasn't been able to charm the residents of the other cities. Unless he can put space between Hide and himself, he's toast.

Last week the whisper around Parliament was that Banks can't win and the centre-left will win a majority of the new Supercity council. If that does happen, Key need look no further than Hide to blame.