KEY POINTS:
Unusually for me, I was sitting in the sun outside SPQR on Ponsonby Rd having lunch the other day when I ran into singer John Rowles.
The iconic Kiwi singer's an old mate of Winston Peters and today he will lend his ageless voice to the opening of
the New Zealand First election campaign.
Peters has at least one friend left. He spent much of this week attacking his former buddy, Helen Clark, for stealing his thunder with the free transport for oldies scheme on the Super Gold Card.
National's John Key thrust home another dagger, dismissing any suggestion he would deal with Peters after the election, saying the New Zealand First leader does not come up to National's standards.
For someone Labour likes to paint as a political novice still wet behind the ears and who needs to "harden up", Key is playing a pretty astute pre-election game.
At last National seems to have realised this is an MMP election and it is, for the first time, no longer playing a lone race as if it was in the first-past-the-post era.
Key has been quietly going around most of the minor parties to see what the price of their post-election support might be and to position himself in the driver's seat come November 9.
By deliberately excluding negotiations with New Zealand First, he has painted Peters into a corner.
He sends the message to anyone inclined to vote New Zealand First that a vote for it is also an automatic vote for another Labour-led government. That may not be so attractive to some New Zealand First supporters who incline to National.
At the same time, he signals potential Labour voters who may have tired of Peters' antics that a vote for Labour will see the return of the beleaguered Minister Without Portfolio.
That trick alone should be worth a couple of percentage points to National at the ballot box.
By sticking to his declaration that he will not have Act's Sir Roger Douglas as a Cabinet minister, he reassures centrist National-leaning voters that there will be no Rogernomic excesses in his government.
I suspect he has left himself some room to manoeuvre by using the words "Cabinet minister". This could mean if he has to, he could make Douglas a minister outside the main Cabinet.
However, the way the polls are stacking up it seems unlikely Act will have the muscle to dictate that he must take Douglas on board.
Similarly, Key is meeting United Future's Peter Dunne for a little chat.
He might not need Dunne's one or two seats after November 8 but he is still sussing out where Dunne stands on various issues.
Key's handling of the Maori Party is central to his strategy. Even if National wins a clear majority of seats, it is likely he will still deal with Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia.
Keeping an eye on the next election in 2011, he would be wise to bring the Maori Party, United and Act into the tent.
None of them has to be an active coalition partner.
Some could guarantee a National government support on confidence and supply issues as part of a trade off for seeing Key implement some of their pet policies.
But of all the minor parties, it is the Maori Party which is likely to wind up with a couple of seats in Cabinet.
While the Treaty Negotiations Minister is likely to be National MP Chris Finlayson, the Maori Affairs portfolio would be a sitter for someone like Sharples. A specialist ministerial post, aimed at economic development, education, health and housing targeting Maori, could also be another berth.
Both parties want to repeal the Seabed and Foreshore Act, although for different reasons. Finding a mutually acceptable solution will be a big ask, but Sharples has indicated it need not be a game-breaker.
National's policy of abolishing the Maori seats by 2014 is not a serious problem either. That date is still two more elections away. An experienced political strategist in Parliament said to me, ruefully, "It's not a matter of will National take the Maori Party, it is what will the Maori Party take?".
Sharples and Turia are studying what happened to other minor parties that went into coalitions or major support agreements with the ruling party. Early this century, the Alliance disintegrated after its marriage with Labour while in the late 1990s, New Zealand First imploded after doing a deal with National.
The Maori Party has to figure out how to gain some power and not destroy themselves in the process.
