It had set off about an hour earlier, and within minutes, will be first example of why counting the number of hīkoi participants is so tricky.
5.17am: 1000 people
It’s only been five minutes since the poor soul on the early shift at RNZ has started the day’s live blog and already the reporters on the ground are feeding back that the number is actually 1000 – so, RNZ reports 1000 people are marching toward Pōneke.
7.31am: 2000 people
Police, who are a frequently relied-upon authority for counting crowd sizes (given how often they find themselves monitoring them), say the crowd that left McEwan Park was actually 2000-strong.
7.41am: 5000 people
RNZ is now reporting 5000 people are at Waitangi Park. Fair enough – the hīkoi from McEwan Park was not the only source of people for the day’s turnout. It’s important to point out at this stage that police were expecting more than 30,000 to hīkoi to Parliament while Eru Kapa-Kingi had said he expected 50,000.
Weirdly, at 8.18am, RNZ asks reporter Pokere Paiwai to guess the size of the crowd. He guesses 5000, the number they’d reported some half an hour earlier.
10.14am: 15,000 + 2000 = 17,000
Crowd-counting experts Ngā Pirihimana o Aotearoa (NZ Police) are back with a radically higher estimate of 15,000 people at Waitangi Park, along with 2000 already assembled on Parliament grounds.
10.41am: 50,000?
Waatea News storms out the gate with its first major estimate, saying more than 50,000 people are in the hīkoi.
11.38am: An extra 2000 people
Police are now saying 4000 people are on Parliament grounds, on top of the 15,000 on their way from Waitangi Park.
Within minutes, we posted this reel which included an approximate crowd size of 20,000 (15,000 + 4000 with a 5% margin of error).
We are flamed in the comments for this estimate.
11.47am: 25,000 people?
Labour MP Willie Jackson says 25,000 people are there, according to the New Zealand Herald.
1.10pm: The notorious 35,000 figure emerges
Much fretting is going on in newsrooms across Aotearoa at this point (we presume), trying to figure out the crowd size.
Police issue their verdict: at least 35,000.
We would later post that figure, and once again the comments section was unhappy with us.
1.53pm: 50,000-80,000
Waatea News is now reporting a source with a strong background in statistical data is saying the crowd is anywhere between 50,000 and 80,000 strong.
2.30pm: Winston Peters weighs in
NZ First leader and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters is speaking to media and says he’s seen far bigger protests.
He’s not sure police nailed it with 35,000 – and reckons closer to 22,000 people are outside.
“Go and have a good hard look,” Peters said, though it’s unclear how hard he looked.
2.44pm: NZ First divided
Mere minutes later, Shane Jones tells RNZ the crowd size is “a hell of a lot more than 35,000 if you want my honest views”.
At this point, crowds are beginning to move away from Parliament.
3.37pm: 55,000, says Public Service Association
PSA members, staff and delegates were amongst the estimated 55,000 strong Hīkoi that descended on to Pāremata...
Posted by Public Service Association on Monday 18 November 2024
4.02pm: 50,000, says Willie Jackson
Around 5pm: 100,000, says Rawiri Waititi
Around 5pm (frustratingly, Instagram won’t show me the exact time he posted this), Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi puts the number at 100,000 people.
5.33pm: 42,000 people
Wellington District Commander Superintendent Corrie Parnell says 42,000.
A lot of people still aren’t convinced, given much higher figures are floating around on the internet.
6.30pm: Te Ao Māori News posts this article
So, ultimately, we’re not sure how many people showed up. The crowd was huge, don’t get us wrong – but at the end of the day, we’re not crowd-counting experts.
As journalists, we have to take the publicly reported numbers, and generally, the best authority on crowd sizes is the police.
But whatever the crowd size – 22,000 according to Winston Peters, 42,000 according to the Police, 50,000 according to Willie Jackson or 100,000 according to Rawiri Waititi, Te Rawhitiroa Bosch, or most people in our comment sections – the most important thing is that people peacefully enjoyed their right to protest and express their view.
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