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Home / Kahu

Boris Sokratov: Come on James. Cyclones like Gabrielle are natural - so don’t blame climate change bro

By Boris Sokratov
NZ Herald·
16 Feb, 2023 07:17 AM7 mins to read

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Green co-leader James Shaw is all at sea for blaming Cyclone Gabrielle on climate change. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Green co-leader James Shaw is all at sea for blaming Cyclone Gabrielle on climate change. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Opinion by Boris Sokratov

OPINION:

I thought James Shaw made the odd bit of sense. But his recent parliamentary speech and article in the The Guardian brings his judgment into question.

Sadly, this is nothing more than opportunistic “Green standing” by the leader of the Green Party to suit his personal political narrative. Cyclones are naturally occurring weather events.

It’s just not scientifically possible to draw a direct link between climate change and a single weather event like Cyclone Gabrielle or in fact any weather event. Cyclones have occurred in New Zealand and around the world throughout history and they will continue to happen. Climate change may possibly have exacerbated the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle but it was not the cause. A natural weather event was the direct cause.

The damage on the other hand is directly linked to our and unwillingness to think critically and plan appropriately or to put it bluntly – our predilection for stupidity. More at issue is the lack of leadership (Shaw included) and unwillingness shown by successive governments and local councils, to address the fact that as a nation we are cheap. Everybody wants a new Mercedes but they only want to pay for a second-hand 10 year old Japanese import. In fact, they’d prefer somebody else paid for it.

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As a result we build everything to minimum specification with virtually no consideration given to environmental conditions or the future. If it will solve the problem right now that’s considered acceptable. Well guess what? It’s no longer acceptable.

Many marae and urupā, particularly in Te Tai Tokerau and Tairawhiti are located in low-lying coastal areas where Cyclone Gabrielle has run rampant.

While never wanting to diminish the wide-reaching impact Cyclone Gabrielle has had on communities right across the board, it is in remote rural Māori communities where the consequences will be felt for the longest. Simply because these tiny isolated rural Māori communities do not have a loud shouty voice like James Shaw to advocate on their behalf with local councils and central Government. It is also not their way.

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They are in danger of becoming the forgotten people. We cannot allow that to happen.

As a nation it’s long past time that we started addressing the real problems which are:

  • Continuing to allow poorly specified housing development in flood plains, on beachfronts, unstable hillsides, and cliff tops.
  • Our abysmal forestry practices.
  • Not protecting our food supply.
  • Continuing to allow infill housing and urban housing intensification without sufficient supporting infrastructure.
  • Lack of investment in all forms of water management.
  • Inadequate storm water and sewerage drainage. Small pipes ain’t gonna stop mother nature.
Boris Sokratov. Photo / Supplied
Boris Sokratov. Photo / Supplied

The solution is to prioritise what needs to be done by - “controlling what we can control” and leaving issues like climate change to the big boys – The US, China, Japan, Germany, India, UK, France, Russia et al.

It is true New Zealand has a high per capita rate of carbon emissions. However this is where statistics become misleading. In overall terms our carbon emissions represent 0.09 per cent of the world’s total. So until the big boys start taking carbon emissions and climate change seriously all we are doing as a nation is peeing on our own gumboots.

What most people don’t realise is that the percentage of arable land in New Zealand is small and has been steadily declining since 1960. In 1960 it was around 10 per cent it’s now 2 per cent and heading south. Our market gardeners and horticulturists are under siege. If you thought fresh fruit and veges were expensive after the Auckland Anniversary floods, just wait and see what’s coming after Cyclone Gabrielle. When Covid hit one of the most vital things Government needed to do was ensure the security of the food supply chain. They didn’t then and they haven’t now.

Horticultural land on the edges of major urban areas has been under pressure for decades. Councils, especially Auckland Council, have effectively been rating market gardeners off their land. Growers need rates relief. They also need disaster relief. Allowing prime horticultural land to continue to be subdivided is absurd. Who would blame market gardeners for walking away and just selling to developers? Food security is a far bigger priority for New Zealand than climate change.

The concept of New Zealand becoming carbon neutral by 2050 is a nice to have but it should never be seen as a priority until we have our national house in order. For starters, there are far more pressing issues to be addressed, not just for Māori, for everyone in Aotearoa – like security of the food chain, health care, education, jobs, housing and crime.

The three bills currently being discussed to replace the RMA are going to be far more important than the hyped up “Green standing” around climate change. Those bills are the:

  • Natural & Built Environmental Bill.
  • Spatial Planning Bill.
  • Climate Adaption Bill.

These bills will have major ramifications for us all. How many people know or understand the importance of those soon to become Acts to the future of New Zealand? I’d hazard a guess not many. I’ve been to seminars held by the key planners from Auckland Council. They expressed grave concern that the likelihood of the changes causing seriously unintended negative consequences is going to be high. Especially when it comes to subdivision and housing intensification.

Human induced (anthropogenic) climate change is real, however nobody has yet to scientifically proven it is the major cause of climate change. Crikey, the planet’s climate has been naturally changing for billions of years. Now that does not mean climate change isn’t real. It is, rising sea levels are proof enough. It just shouldn’t be a high priority for New Zealand at this time.

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Our national predilection towards “group think stupid” is now at an epic high. It’s long past time we stopped giving airtime to the shouty Wealthy Western Woke Worried Well. They are the only people who have the privilege to be worried about climate change. Few of them have ever (and most probably never) known what it’s like to be cold, starving, thirsty or homeless. Sadly, far too many tamariki Māori do.

The world is currently a very turbulent and mixed-up place. Right now, there are a lot of confused unhappy people looking for places and people to vent their anger at. Perhaps it’s time to genuinely engage with a Māori worldview when it comes to climate change.

When you don’t have enough to eat and a house over your head Climate Change is seriously low on your list of priorities. We all need to step back and take a chill pill. The planet will survive. It’s been around for about 4.5 billion years and she’s probably got plenty left in her tank. The future of the planet is just fine. The future for humans? Maybe not so good unless we stop being stupid.

If you haven’t heard about Vanda Shiva take a moment to watch the video and find out about her work. Vanda is one of the world’s outstanding thinkers.

So, no James, it wasn’t climate change. Cyclone Gabrielle was caused by the weather. And the resulting damage from Cyclone Gabrielle was caused by human stupidity.

Māori as kaitiaki have always had an unique relationship with the whenua, awa, and sea, perhaps it’s time for decision-makers responsible for resources and infrastructure to genuinely engage with Māori when it comes to setting priorities instead of paying us lip service. There is considerable wisdom in Mātauranga Māori that can help us learn and better inform future disaster and climate change decision-making.

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  • Boris Sokratov is a Bulgarian-Māori and has whakapapa to Te Rarawa Ngati Haua. He was the producer of the Nutters Club Radio Show. He helped establish the Key to Life Charitable Trust, that supports mental health advocate Mike King.




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