KEY POINTS:
Why are there such extremes in weather between the top half of the North Island and the bottom half of the South Island? In Auckland we're enjoying mostly sunny days and down south they're under snow. Extremes in weather and climate during June have occurred because we have
had more prevailing southwesterlies. The bottom half of the South Island has been very exposed to wintry blasts that have come up from subantarctic latitudes. At the same time, Auckland has been largely sheltered from the cold south or southwesterly winds, and the airflow has been off the warmer Tasman Sea. Over the years, I've noticed Auckland's winters getting colder. Can I expect to see snow in Auckland one day?
Over the past century, Auckland winters have actually become warmer. A hundred years ago, winter temperatures were about 1C lower than they have been in the past decade. It is virtually certain that you will not see snow in Auckland city.
Are you a climate change believer or sceptic? Have you noticed any major changes in your time in weather forecasting and if so, what has been the most surprising?
Climate has always changed over time. However, I agree with the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment Report. This has concluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea levels. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Major changes I have noticed in my time in climate research have been the shrinkage of mountain glaciers in New Zealand and worldwide, the warming of temperatures and the decrease in frosts.
If you could pick one place to live in New Zealand, purely for its weather, where would that be and why?
The warmest centre in New Zealand is Auckland, the driest Alexandra and the sunniest Nelson or Blenheim. If lack of wind is important, the Bay of Plenty ranks highly. I personally like sunshine and dryness so that would make a preference for Napier or Blenheim.
There has been a lot of talk about rising sea levels and what that may do to some low-lying New Zealand properties. Is this something we will see in our lifetime do you think?
Tide gauges around New Zealand show that the sea level has risen by 16-18cm over the past 100 years. The projections of sea level rise indicate increases of half a metre by the end of the century. This could be more if the melting of Arctic Sea ice and Greenland is higher than anticipated. Coupled with this is the change in weather and climate patterns. Recent international climate reports highlighted that ongoing coastal development is likely to exacerbate the future risk to lives and property from sea level rise and storms. If development on the coast continues, then yes this will occur. However, with responsible planning, coastal property and lives will not be at risk.
